Thread by @pmdfoster

Can 'technology' or 'maxfac' solve the Irish border question problem?

Boris and Davis say it can.

David Trimble, who signed the Good Friday Agreement says so too.

So does a paper today by @Policy_Exchange

I think that's wrong. Here's why.
1/Thread.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

Let's start with that Policy Exchange report, with a forward by David Trimble. You can read it all here:

policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

It admits defeat almost from the outset, by arguing that UK Govt "conceded too much” last December in the Joint Report. /2

Recall the UKG promise to avoid a hard border “including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls.”

That set's a high bar for MaxFac - so high that Davis and Boris talk about some infrastructure, "set back" from the border. /3

This implies partially reneging on Joint Report (which opened door to trade talks) with obvious detrimental impacts on talks process. Is that what is being suggested?

And if so, what 'infrastructure' do they propose, and where, and how long do they think it will last? /4

Recall that every constituency on that border is Sinn Fein controlled. I walked a chunk of that border with @WTenison last year. On the back roads even the 'Welcome to United Kingdom' sings are torn down, or even peppered with bullets. /5

Remarkably the @Policy_Exchange report is frank that it is "almost inevitable" there will be violence from dissident Republicans, but that it will soon 'subside'.

I don't disagree with the first part. Am curious if MaxFac cabinet ministers could support/accept that? /6

To be clear - we are not talking about a 'return to the Troubles' as is often unhelpfully suggested. I was in Northern Ireland last week and couldn't find anyone seriously predicting that. But you don't need return to Troubles for life to get a lot worse in NI. /7

Recall the Good Friday Agreement essentially removed the 'choice' between Ireland and United Kingdom. At its core was an ambiguity that enabled Nationalists and Unionists to live in parallel constitutional realities. Infrastructure should be considered in that light. /8

So if we are not prepared to tolerate renewed Republican violence, or to row back on the Joint Report or to willingly re-sectarianise Northern Ireland politics (already deeply strained by Brexit) is an 'invisible' border still possible?

Policy Exchange seems to think so /9

To argue this, it cites the European Parliament 'Customs 2.0' paper by Lars Karlsson who is a former deputy director of customs for Sweden. You can read it here.

It does indeed cite lots of technological solutions, BUT.... /10

europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes…

...just LOOK at what he is talking about. "Mobile inspection units" "CCTV"

The PSNI is clear this stuff would last about 10 minutes - set back from the border or not. /11

As @hayward_katy has pointed out for @UKandEU UK companies would not take kindly to Border Force inspections. You can imagine how they'd go down in Northern Ireland and the 'hay' that Sinn Fein would make of them. Read her in full here. /12

qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…

It is at this point, when Brexiteers assert that "surely" some solution should be found, or blame EU or Dublin for 'weaponisng' Ireland, that the answer should come back "surely not". /13

FWIW, I think the EU has at time unwisely 'weaponised' the issue - the drafting of the Protocol, @MichelBarnier cavalier remarks about Irish Sea border for goods last week -but the facts on the ground are the facts on the ground. They cannot be magicked away. /14

This is itself implicitly recognised by the UK request to have exemptions for SMEs on the north-south border, in order to make 'MaxFac' work.

You know the stats 200+ crossings, 6,000 lorries a day...you know a solution is iffy if it cannot be applied to 80% of trade /15

Recall also that the reason we are even having this conversation is to enable the UK to diverge. That's what Boris and DD are fighting for.

But that is WHY the EU isn't prepared to put a backdoor in its external border, setting legal precedents. /16

I fear that UK audiences underestimate how much EU27 member states are behind Barnier on this point.

Brexiteers point out that only 2%-5% of consignments are checked at EU external border. True, but then, conformity of standards is presumed. Not so with Brexit Britain. /17

If Brexiters want to argue for MaxFac, they need to answer these basic questions.

And no point complaining about Brussels and Dublin "playing politics" - even if that's true (and to a degree it is) Article 50's two-year timetable gives them the ratchet. /18

We have to recognise that Dublin is as allergic to elements of a north-south border being reinstated, as the DUP and all Tories are to an east-west border that splits the UK and reignites the Scottish nationalist narrative. /19

MaxFac as part of a zero-tariff FTA, as Brexiteers propose, won't fly.

It won't obviate a border either in NI or in Irish Sea.

Wishing it would fly, won't make it fly.

(Boris must know this, given his leaked letter to PM arguing for a no "significantly" harder border") /20

FWIW, when @Telegraph reported the EU had blown both options out the water, many Brexiteers weren't surprised the 'Customs Partnership' was rejected, but were very sceptical about MaxFac being rubbished. They had that back-to-front, per my sources in BXL, UK and trade world. /21

That's why May clings to her Customs Partnership - which @campaignforleo now hints might not be 'quite' as magical as first thought. At least with a tweak or three.

If Brexiteers disagree, they need to explain why/how this MaxFac dog can hunt.

For now, I'm not buying. /END