The PM wants to appeal to those 'bored of Brexit' in and out of Parliament to get a majority for a deal. She says voting against will take us back to square one. She is relying on a naivety among MPs... 1/ theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
There's no doubt many are 'bored of Brexit'. But voting for or against the deal isn't going to make Brexit go away. The implications of Brexit aren't going away for many years 2/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Essentially in voting for Brexit and then rejecting any existing relationship like Norway and saying we need a bespoke partnership you have just opened up the entire catalogue of EU regulation to debate in the UK. That has to take some time 3/
Take fish, just one of the many issues. Yesterday I posted as a thought experiment a question as to which future relationship would be best for the fishing industry. Turns out this is a complex issue depending on whose interests you prioritise 4/
Fortunately we have experts (and we're going to need them) to point out the different issues of access, tariffs, conservation and the like. But just sorting this one issue out will take years... 5/
Now what if we have to choose in a negotiation between our interests in fish and those in financial services. Who wins? And how do we decide? 6/
We know there are at least 106 areas needing attention - for this is the number of no-deal notices published by the Government. All have to be sorted in an agreement. This is almost certainly an understatement of the problem 7/ gov.uk/government/col…
Hence as well those pesky experts also saying the current transition period is clearly inadequate. Agreement by 2022 might just be possible, but with more time to ratify. And that still might not solve the Irish border question 8/
So if you're bored of Brexit and vote for this deal we may be done by 2025. Alternatives exist. Though no-deal could take even longer to put everything in place. EEA and Remain will settle things more quickly, but at a political cost 9/
Of course there isn't an easy answer, unless you pretend you are 'super-negotiator' and can do it in 5 minutes (Corbyn, Johnson B). This deal has to live or die on own merits, rather than spurious stuff about ending debate 10/
This is pretty much the best deal you'll get if ending freedom of movement and having no new border on island of Ireland or the Irish sea are your priorities. If they aren't, you can argue for alternatives. But the debate will keep going... 11/ end
