Today there is much talk about a longer transition period - even by the more ERG minded, even in the Sun. Is this the answer to concerns that trade experts had with the length of transition and a sign we are seeing rationality return? (thread) thesun.co.uk/news/6250153/b…
1) A reminder: a transition (or implementation, now used synonymously) will be needed, as there will not be a UK-EU agreement ready the day after Brexit.
2) What is currently negotiated is a framework for such a deal, the realy deal can only be done after Brexit. As this needs time, the transition is supposed to fill the gap.
3) There are several ways to construct such a transition, e.g. extension of Art. 50. The preferred way is to have a “status quo but no institutional representation” transition, which will be put into the withdrawal agreement. These provisions have been agreed.
4) There are two problems with the transition: a) it is in the WA, so it will only enter into force if all other WA problems (such as Northern Ireland) are resolved and we actually get such an agreement and b) it is less than 2 years
5) Leaving aside all other legal problems of the WA and focusing on the length of transition: Most experts agree is it’s unlikely we’ll get the UK-EU deal within this time period. So there’s still a cliff edge.
6) As prolonging the transition outside of the WA is legally complicated, several of us have accordingly been pushing to provide for the possibility of prolonging transition in the WA. I still regard this as the best option (even though there are problems, of course)
7) The article shows that there’s awareness of the shortness of the transition. So Hooray, right? Well. Not at all.
8) Politicians want the extension not because they need more time to negotiate the UK-EU deal, but because they cannot decide between Customs Partnership and MaxFac - and because “MaxFac needs more time to be put into place”
9) As I have explained elsewhere the Customs Partnership cannot be acceptable to the EU outside of being bound by EU law. That will not happen. The technology for MaxFac does not even exist. So “we need more time” is cute.
10) The need for a “longer transition” is thus only recognized to either help the cabinet choose between two unacceptable options or so that technology is developed to solve our problems
11) I am not sure a negotiating partner will agree to longer time periods to help the other partner choose between two unacceptable options. Or speculating that some technology might be developed.
12) But there’s yet another problem: the transition is in the withdrawal agreement. To get a withdrawal agreement we need to decide on an option for Northern Ireland. A longer transition to help us decide the NI option accordingly makes no sense. Sorry.
