NDP on the rise in Ontario. Up 6pts in a week to trail the PCs by only 5pts now. Why? NDP now seen by progressives as best option to stop Ford. Can they catch the PCs? Possibly. Libs may not have hit bottom yet. Lib defectors going mostly NDP.
What do the Ford PCs have going for them? They lead in most regions, by 20pts in 905. Also, PCs have the most committed, motivated, habitual voters of all the parties. In a low turnout election, this could make the difference.
What do the NDP have going for them? Big lead in 416. Have replaced Libs as best option for progressive coalition. Horwath by far the preferred Premier. Have a clear, credible message - we are best placed to stop Ford.
What do Libs have to work with? It’s tough to see. Leader’s numbers negative, record a burden, signature issues now owned by the NDP. Will need a big mistake by NDP to get back into the race. Not impossible, but time running out.
