Thread by @tony_nog

1) Sir Ivan Rogers speech, a sobering & devastating speech from our former leading EU diplomat on #Brexit, its history and the UK position.

Should be read by *everyone* however I'll pull out a few key points in this thread

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2) the UK already had the best deal of all EU member states. We may not have believed it but the other 27 nations did.
Anyone who thinks about this for more than 5 minutes would realise this
Cameron in fact managed to improve it further, but the press torpedoed his deal

3) the 4 freedoms are seen as indivisible by the EU27. Trucks & money having more rights to move than people is absolutely unacceptable to them. That's just a fact.
Anyone, Labour or Tory, who tells you we can get a great deal without free movement of people is lying to you

4) "No deal" was never and could never be a possibility. The reasons are covered in the speech however the EU have always known we cannot just walk away & can see we are making no preparations for doing so, therefore blustering about it just makes the UK look ridiculous

5) those who talk most about walking away from the CU/SM and who confidently put forward free trade opportunity know the least about how free trade actually operates. Their grasp of even the most basic details is highly limited.

6) hardest to swallow but in the interests of transparency: the 3 major groups of Remainers, Leavers & Fudgers (cakeists) are all kidding ourselves. Something new & highly complex must emerge, which will take years to form & involve a frank debate on real Vs perceived sovereignty

7) the EU is a legal construct, not a gentleman's agreement. There is no legal "half way in/half way out" of SM & CU.

If you are out, you are out, a 3rd country, like all other 3rd countries. It's not bullying but a legal requirement. The EU have no choice & not do we

8) it is bonkers to expect to leave a club & then have a say in the rules of that club. We would not accept Canada having a say in our laws and regulations and it's ludicrous to expect the EU to do likewise.

This is vitally important because...

9) ... there are 3 major standard setters in the world today, the EU, the US & China. Pretty much everyone else has to align with one or more of those to trade.

We will have to align with the EU, regardless of what #Brexit we undertake, but we will have no say in those regs.

10) Sir Ivan highlights 2 example areas. Privacy (for example GDPR) will be a dominating area in technology over the coming years. Financial regulations cover a very large part of our economy. We will have to align with the EU, including any changes, with no say whatsoever

11) this is his core argument. By leaving the EU we gain theoretical sovereignty, but lose huge swathes of practical sovereignty & control over our destiny.

That's just reality, we have to align with EU, the US or China, everyone does, but without a seat at the table

12) the CU & SM go hand in hand. Having one without the other does not solve our problems
The car & other Industries blossomed because of our EU membership. They *will* disappear, at least in their current form, if we leave the SM & CU
Anyone with an interest in jobs knows this

13) any significant free trade deals we sign will significantly impact areas of the UK economy even if we benefit overall.
The sad reality is this will likely impact leave voters more than remain voters in many cases

The chances are that the public would reject such deals (imho)

14) the wacky ideas on customs being debated by Government will not work and more importantly will not be accepted by the EU27. They create additional complexity and risk to the EU27 economies for no benefit.

15) a hard border in Ireland in the absence of a customs agreement is not a threat from the EU but a legal requirement under international trade law.

16) the EU is and always has been an economic *and political* project. Virtually everyone else in the EU knows & has always known this.
Blame generations of UK politicians for not making this clear to the UK population.

17) finally, much of what has been said about #Brexit, but particularly by Brexiters is nonsense.
In leaving we trade one set of "upsides" for a significant set of downsides. Only by confronting those as a nation can we get to a realistic and worthwhile decision

18) anyone concerned with sovereignty for example should be greatly concerned that we will have no say in huge areas of regulations that impact our current & future economy

19) anyone thinking the UK would get special treatment as a 3rd country outside the EU needs to realise this isn't legally possible without treaty change, and accept that if the roles were reversed they would see the request as utterly self serving & ludicrous

20) fundamentally, politicians on left and right are playing games & spinning illusions rather than telling the public the truth.

Because of this the public cannot make an informed decision, this will have damaging repercussions for years
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