The alt bullish move since April was not preceded by a large BTC move and as expected, retreated as fast as it rose
For a sustainable alt move we need new capital to enter, which generates wealth in the most liquid fiat on ramps and later pushes people out on their risk curve
For a sustainable alt move we need new capital to enter, which generates wealth in the most liquid fiat on ramps and later pushes people out on their risk curve
From 04/01-04/26 the top alts increased in mcap from .12 / BTC to .20.This was a strong move but not nearly as dramatic as other alt bull runs
Large cap gains didn't precede it, signifying that substantial LT capital didnt enter and the move didn't have a strong foundation
Large cap gains didn't precede it, signifying that substantial LT capital didnt enter and the move didn't have a strong foundation
The move retreated as fast as it rose with 25 / 26 days on each end -- symmetrical once again. The speculative capital, reaching for returns, left as fast as it entered.
One hypothesis for why this happened is because after the large drop in market cap in January-March, traders were reaching for gains, levering up and hoping for alt season again
It almost became a self fulfilling prophecy, but the twitter calls alone weren't enough to do it
It almost became a self fulfilling prophecy, but the twitter calls alone weren't enough to do it
Liquidity drives markets and at any given moment you need to understand where the liquidity is entering and moving. The alt market is relatively saturated and without new entrants crypto investing has largely turned into musical chairs.
Recent tweetstorm from @cryptorae highlighted the relatively unique period we're in right now with high correlations and low volatility.
IMO, for there to be a sustainable alt run, we first need a decoupling between BTC and the broader alt market
IMO, for there to be a sustainable alt run, we first need a decoupling between BTC and the broader alt market
