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Travis Fairchild @tbfairchild
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
It is very unlikely that the largest companies today will keep up with the market to remain the largest into the future. These Mega Cap names tend to under-perform. This chart is a great visual of what history can teach us about how quickly these names can drift out of favor.
Also, here is a look at the number of Top 10 names that have historically drifted from the largest 10 over the next decade. The average in the U.S. has been around 6-7 on average.
#RobArnott referenced this fact in his recent Barron’s interview, and it’s one of the ways he point out that index funds tend to Buy High and Sell Low.
barrons.com/articles/rob-a…
This is also a point @jposhaughnessy made in his original version of What Works on Wall Street.
We have also discussed it in more granular research like our REIT paper. “More than 60% of the REIT index is in the Largest 20% of names…and those names have underperformed the REIT market by 2.1% annualized”
osam.com/pdfs/research/…
Most investors can do better than market cap weighted indexes.
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More from @tbfairchild see all

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1/ Investors Beware of Fools Gold. Similar to Veiled Value stocks, which I discussed in a recent paper, Fools Gold is another group that is causing confusion for investors.
2/ Value Traps come in many forms, but Fool’s Gold are in the cheapest 1/3rd by Price-to-Book but the most expensive 1/3rd by other metrics like Sales, Earnings and Cash Flow. In other words they look cheap only by Price-to-Book standards.
3/ Fools Gold companies have overstated and distorted book value of equity. These are very expensive stocks masquerading as value and they deceive the investor relying too heavily on Price-to-Book. As a group Fools Gold stocks have had abysmal returns.
Read 13 tweets

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#Chart #EXTRAVAGANZA

Please read the whole thread - will start posting now...but eating dinner so will take a while to get the 30 to 40 tweets done

/1
Given the two crashes in one year and the recent #FANG blow up...how much cash do you think Mutual Funds are holding? How about the lowest ever!

More over their allocations to Stocks remain among the highest ever.

/2
And how are those stock/equity investments postured?

We’ll very precariously as #NYSE and #Nasdaq #Composite show...completely stopped at major resistance...not only that there is the breadth question which we will address later and is terrible

/3
Read 38 tweets
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1/ Feeling so grateful to @mahendra_gr and @techcrunch for covering such an important topic: The mental health of founders.
techcrunch.com/2018/09/10/inv…
2/ I think almost all founders struggle with these emotional issues-but there are so few that talk about it. Why? Fear of being the only one not “crushing it”, fear of what it will mean with potential investors/customers/employees, fear of not living up to expectations.
3/ I deal with these feelings every day. It is a struggle.
Read 24 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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1/11 Latest performance statistics released today by NHS England. A&E for July and other figures for June: england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-…. There is quite a lot to be concerned about, so I'm going to do a thread giving my thoughts.
2/11 NHS trusts clearly under huge pressure in June / July, across the board, with worrying performance drops in A&E, cancer and elective surgery. We traditionally use these months to recover from winter and, for example, catch up on elective surgery., Not happening this year...
3/11 Struck by how many trusts have told us that they still haven't "got back to normal" after the very difficult late winter e.g. escalation beds still open, pressure on elective surgery. Ancedotal sense of continuing pressure reflected in today's performance statistics...
Read 11 tweets
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One afternoon I got a DM from a white guy who said he likes what I do & I said "thanks", he asked where I was & I said Lagos.

"Hmm, so can we talk on WhatsApp?" He asked, I thought about it for a while

"Okay!"

I gave him my number.

White Caller😢

Thread

#StoryTimeWithUche
Less than 5 minutes later I got a video call from a North American number, "video call?What's going on here?" I thought, "igba wo l'abere love t'an kiss?"

I declined the call and went back to what I was doing, this guy called again!

"Again?!"

"Ah ah!"

"This guy serious o!"
I finally picked and the first thing I saw was this guy with my ex girlfriend Lizzy, they were kissing each and laughing at me on video.

"Hello Uche!!" They screamed like 2 fools on live television, I didn't understand what was going on so I asked.

"What's going on here Lizzy?"
Read 74 tweets
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#Remain voted for:

A say in whether the EU enlarges or not.
A say in if the EU federalises or remains a union of independent states.
A say in if there is an EU army.
Being the financial capital through which the majority of € is traded while still keeping the £.

#BrexitReality
#EnlargedEurope

The UK has taken the lead in efforts for EU enlargement. It pushed for the inclusion of Eastern European states. It pushed for Turkey to get its shit together so that it could join (which it made very slow progress with, and has largely been undone by Erdogan)
After #Brexit, the UK will have no influence on EU enlargement. In fact, as setting the EU as a rival, every country that joins the EU will a) strengthen the EU, and b) unravels any trade deals that the UK will have made with that country, isolating it further.
Read 25 tweets

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