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Richard Baldwin @BaldwinRE
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
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Is this heading towards a trade war? NO!
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This is like "reverse regionalism" with US at the center of a "reverse hub & spoke" bilateral network of reverse FTAs
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Each spoke is two-way high tariffs (US tariffs & non-US retaliation)
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...
As I pointed out in 1990s &2000s (when US, EU &Jpn were emerging as hubs in real, tariff-lowering FTAs), hub&spoke encourages investment & relocation to hub since it makes the FTAs make the hub a lo-cost island
bruegel.org/wp-content/upl…
adb.org/sites/default/…
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This time US has manage to coordinate near-simultaneous retaliation by all major trade partners thus make US the hub of "reverse FTAs" in a hub&spoke pattern.
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Result:US tariffs+retaliation reduces US manuf'ing export competitiveness
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Germany, Japan & China firms continue to have access to competitively priced industrial inputs; US firms less so.
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ERGO: Some re-shoring of production for US sales, but more offshoring for US exports.
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Time to revisit what happens when 20th century trade strategies are deployed in the 21st century world
Three questions:
- Will US tariffs lead manufacturing stages to be rebundled? (i.e. will tariffs undo global value chains?)
- Will the rebundling take place in US or abroad?
- Will the rebundling inside the US create jobs for US workers or US robots?
Two points:
1) Raising US trade barriers will NOT stop offshoring of US knowhow by US companies seeking to combine high-tech with low wages in China and elsewhere.
- This is what enable the global value chains in the first place, and tariffs won’t undo it.
Read 12 tweets
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_1/4
Cameron started the Brexit mess as a political gamble to save his party & PMship, but …
His pre-referendum words turned out to be right.
381 days before Brexit (& still no clarity on what happens on day 382), it’s worth recalling what Remain side said before the vote.
_2/4
Snippets from Cameron’s pre-referendum speech 9 May 2016 (about Leavers):
"Others are in denial that there would be a shock at all.
And they can’t agree what their plan for post-Brexit Britain would look like.”
_3/4
"One minute we are urged to follow Norway, the next minute Canada. A few days later Switzerland offers the path forward"
Read the whole thing, gov.uk/government/spe…
Or watch it on Youtube
Read 4 tweets

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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
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🛎InconvenientTruth🛎

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That is the inconvenient truth the Putin GOP won’t admit.

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Read 67 tweets
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"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
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Read 232 tweets
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#ModiXisummit
Folks, I don’t have time to write an article, so here’s my two-cents on the upcoming #ModiXisummit (informal) in Wuhan. I’m seeing a lot of brouhaha being played by the Indian media, think-tankies regarding the “reset”, “thaw” in relations.
1)The meeting draws on the similar format of reset and informal meets organised by Xi for Obama in 2013 and the Mar-a-lago summit hosted for Xi by Trump last year. Both have failed to bring any kind of reset. Instead there is a trade war looming between China and USA now
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#Probablemente ([#EO]#probable🍀/[#EN]#Probably🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿)
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#THREAD
We will be at war with NKorea before #Christmas!
#Trump is putting the final pieces in place before he goes for all out War 1/
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Read 32 tweets

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