1/ So let's say the UK keeps the free movement red line. The EU says ok then we will give you a FTA in that case.
2/ so the UK says - well what about UK citizens living in the eu27? What about British businesspeople who want to go work on the continent? What about UK pensioners who want to retire in the EU?
3/ so the EU will say - we can come to some reciprocal deal on free movement and residence, rights to study and retire on the continent if you like. But it has to be reciprocal. UK says fine.
4/ so we end up with a FTA + a reciprocal deal on free movement. Even with the FTA, trade between UK and EU becomes much more difficult; because the best FTA in the world isn't a patch on membership of the European Economic Area.
5/ a few years down the line, someone in Brussels will release their memoirs and write "we were quite prepared to give the UK membership of the EEA if they rejoined efta and accepted a deal on free movement - we were even willing to give them significant concessions..."
6/ in short, since we are going to have to make some concessions to the EU *ANYWAY* if we want to live and work, study and retire there - and vice versa then why doesn't the UK aim for efta/EEA membership with concessions on FoM? Don't know until we ask. /End
