@pmdfoster @CER_Grant @EUServicesForum @MichelBarnier @DavidDavisMP It's a very interesting thread but 4 me too optimistic. Canada dry's plainly unlikely. 1) DUP & right wing Tories can't agree to that. It would be seen as a surrender and major distortion of UK constitution. From their view Ireland's demands are unjust & UK's claims superior. /1
@pmdfoster @CER_Grant @EUServicesForum @MichelBarnier @DavidDavisMP Facing them down won't work since this is not just a power issue but a deeply rooted matter of conviction, which has similar proportions as abortion or gay marriage few decades ago. Additionally those factions deeply believe that Brexit is going bad because of the government. /2
@pmdfoster @CER_Grant @EUServicesForum @MichelBarnier @DavidDavisMP To them this is a non problem b/c they seriously believe that UK has the upper hand & is just losing because of bad handling. This provides reasons to resist (no deal is not feared but fine to them) & rather incentives to kill off HMG & put a true believer in charge. /3
@pmdfoster @CER_Grant @EUServicesForum @MichelBarnier @DavidDavisMP I see virtually no chance to get it through without risking a party split and fall of government. Both provides enough incentives to even put moderates in the position to reject such a deal. /4
@pmdfoster @CER_Grant @EUServicesForum @MichelBarnier @DavidDavisMP That means, Canada dry is not an option. There is just SM & CU or nothing on the menu. Believing that EU or indeed drop the demand for no border infrastructure is even more unlikely. 2) Such a deal would undermine SM and this is plainly not tolerable. /5
@pmdfoster @CER_Grant @EUServicesForum @MichelBarnier @DavidDavisMP Floating suggestions on exemptions for FoM is nonsense, since main veto players have strong national & institutional drives to preserve it (especially EUParl, GER & FR). It plainly won't happen - no deal is the better option to them. Only way would be reestablishing border. /6
@pmdfoster @CER_Grant @EUServicesForum @MichelBarnier @DavidDavisMP But this is for Ireland at least as bad as East West border for DUP and right wingers. Difference: they are unified, UK is not. They have support by EU for institutional & political reasons, UK is rather isolated on that. /7
@pmdfoster @CER_Grant @EUServicesForum @MichelBarnier @DavidDavisMP 3) Everything points to full SM and CU membership or no deal. There are plainly no other options which would be tolerable to EU. Question is what UK will chose. I don't see here any argument who can be won. Circumstances shaped the choices. /8
@pmdfoster @CER_Grant @EUServicesForum @MichelBarnier @DavidDavisMP So my question is a) how could UK possibly win the argument, am I missing something? b) which of those two option will be chosen? /end
