Not a judgment, just an observation, but it's interesting that Amy Coney Barrett is a frontrunner for SCOTUS. A few months ago, she was just a law professor; she has written only 8 opinions that I can find. I really like Amy, from knowing her a little. Still, interesting, to me.
2/ Kagan is also an interesting case, as she had not been a judge. But my recollection is that she had been talked about as a future SCOTUS pick for a while. Like John Roberts, she had been a DC Circuit nominee super young who didn't get confirmed at the tail end of an admin.
3/ And then Obama named her SG, with an obvious eye to a future SCOTUS appointment. Similarly, Roberts had been a judge only briefly, but he was talked of for years (decades?) as a future short-lister based on his advocacy and exec branch experience.
4/ The interesting part (at least to me), is that it may reflect a change in norms of how short-lists are formed. My sense is that post-Souter, there was a sense on the right that conservatives wanted years of judging experience to make sure a nom was solid -- "No more Souters!"
5/ But the expectation of years of experience seems to have changed, and I suspect the change may reflect strengthening of centralized networks. If there is a central network like the @fedsoc, and prospective candidates in their 40s have been known since their 20s,
6/ the relevant interest groups may feel completely comfortable with a nominee who doesn't have much of a track record as a lower court judge. If so, that may cause a shift over time to new Justices w/ less experience on lower courts. (Which may be good or bad, I don't know.)
7/ Of course, Presidents have long wanted to put on young Justices, and that often means those with only short experience; Justice Thomas was a short-lister for the Supremes almost immediately after being put on the DC Circuit, and he was nominated at 43.
8/ My speculation is just comparative, that perhaps networks like @fedsoc (and the increase in # of law clerks per Justice, which is another related network) might over time mean fewer future nominees with long experience on circuit courts. /speculation
