Have been saying for a while now that UKIP voters who backed Con in 2017 would be likely to turn against them at some point because their expectations re: Brexit were impossible to meet. Perhaps that point has arrived. Need more polls to confirm though.
Worth remembering these are voters with very low trust and loyalty, who used defection to UKIP to get what they want already, just a few years ago. If they decide they don't like May's deal, why would they stick around?
The problem for Consis that 2017 demonstrated that appealing to UKIP voters is not a majority winning strategy even when they really like you. But May's attempts to win them over have also annoyed the moderate/socially liberal Cons who delivered 2015 majority to Cam.
Hard to see any way out of this bind for Cons unless they get past Brexit and change leader. But if UKIP leaners abandon ship now Eurosceptic backbench opposition will make former even harder, and chances of a PM with appeal to moderates will decline.
