I think Kavanaugh’s nomination will be pulled before he gets a vote.
A lot of people have asked me the obvious question: why do I think this.
First, let me hedge a bit; I have no inside knowledge, and I wouldn’t put much of my own money on this prediction. It’s really mostly a hunch, based on some big picture things & a few little anecdotes…/2
First, let me hedge a bit; I have no inside knowledge, and I wouldn’t put much of my own money on this prediction. It’s really mostly a hunch, based on some big picture things & a few little anecdotes…/2
On the big picture, there are some Senate Repubs who are zealots. There are others who just don’t care, or, RE about 5 of them, seem mostly out of it & easily manipulated while they shake their fists and yell at clouds.
But, any Senator who has aspirations for POTUS or just…/3
But, any Senator who has aspirations for POTUS or just…/3
…wants a chance to get reelected is probably not all that happy that this opening occurred, with the balance of the court on several issues at stake, when every one of their votes will be needed. Every single Repub will be legitimately blamed for every bad change the court…/4
…inflicts on the country. And when Roberts will be the most liberal member of the majority, the changes could be catastrophic. Most Repub Senators are cowards. And they have kids & grandkids & spouses & friends, and I have to imagine a lot of them are already being told they…/5
…will never forgive them if they knowingly vote to wipe out reproductive and LGBT rights, destroy the health care system, leave consumers with no rights, etc.
Most Repubs are fine w demagoguing about Roe. I think a good chunk don’t want to be responsible for overturning it/6
Most Repubs are fine w demagoguing about Roe. I think a good chunk don’t want to be responsible for overturning it/6
Lucky for the cowards, Trump nominated Kavanaugh. Here’s where I’m doing some half-assed tea leave reading. A few details worth pondering.
Kavanaugh wasn’t on the original Federalist Society list of SCOTUS candidates. He was added later, reportedly at the request of Kennedy…/7
Kavanaugh wasn’t on the original Federalist Society list of SCOTUS candidates. He was added later, reportedly at the request of Kennedy…/7
…for whom he clerked. Now, look at Kavanaugh’s judicial record, and I can’t imagine why the Federalist Society wouldn’t love to have him on the court, especially with his apparent aggressive zeal. So why wasn’t he on there, given his pedigree? My guess is there are things…/8
…about him, in his past, or in his demeanor, that make him a better candidate to be a justice than a candidate to be confirmed by the Senate. Maybe it’s the weird financial history of floating a lot of debt on credit cards. Or that for a possible Justice he’s blabbed a lot…/9
…in ways that are embarrassing or “saying the quiet things loudly” kind of way. Examples are his comments on the Watergate decision, comments on Roe, etc. He’s supposed to be inscrutable except for his written opinions and maybe some law review articles. But he blabs. /10
There’s also the report that McConnell had warned the WH he might be tough to confirm. And then in the last few days McConnell “threatened” Dems to have his vote a few days before the election unless they dropped requests for what is surely a massive paper trail. That was…/11
…a laughable threat, and reeked of desperation. If he’s coming up for a vote, I suspect most and maybe all Dems would view a few days before the election as a gift from heaven. Even the Red State Dems are tying him to overturning preexisting condition coverage. They’d love…/12
…that free ad time.
But you know who wouldn’t? Repubs.
Right after the election there was talk about McConnell getting rid of the filibuster. I said then he probably would on SCOTUS if necessary, but not on legislation, bc he wouldn’t want to give up the opportunity to…/13
But you know who wouldn’t? Repubs.
Right after the election there was talk about McConnell getting rid of the filibuster. I said then he probably would on SCOTUS if necessary, but not on legislation, bc he wouldn’t want to give up the opportunity to…/13
…blame Dems for not being able to do what he couldn’t do on his own, or didn’t want to do. And for less consequential votes on judges, he can get all his caucus. But on this one, if as I suspect none of the Dems are on board, if more weird stuff comes out on Kavanaugh…/14
…he’s probably going to have a half-dozen or more Senators who won’t want to cast that vote pressuring him to tell the WH to withdraw the nomination. I suspect for some Repubs, they’d rather risk what happens w Trump putting a nominee before a Dem Senate than paying…/15
…the price for being the deciding vote on the guy who tipped things back to the pre-Roe, maybe pre-Griswold, pre-Brown, Lochner era court. /16
Tacking this on to yesterday’s thread about why I wouldn’t be surprised if Kavanaugh’s nomination is pulled before a vote.i suspect a lot of Repubs don’t want to cast that vote. /17
