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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Thanks to Brexit, by now we all know what tariff quotas are, don't we?

Two good reports out today. First @DavidHenigUK for @ECIPE looks at internal UK processes as well as international reactions.

(Quibble, the WTO certifies, consensus = no one objects)

ecipe.org/publications/t… Screenshot of linked page paragraph on UK struggling
Second @Max_AgraEurope on responses, particularly from countries and organisations with interests in beef, to the EU Commission's invitation for comment on its proposed tariff quotas

(paywalled but free trial available) ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/CO220533/EU-me…
The EU's proposed list of tariff quotas for post-Brexit EU-27 is here eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?…

The UK's would be present EU-28 minus future EU-27 quotas, although other countries object to the method
And here's @ChrisHorseman2 on @DavidHenigUK's piece

….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL217112/Brexi…
And that story by @Max_AgraEurope above was about those interested in meat (not just beef) and also sugar. Sorry
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More from @CoppetainPU see all

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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 20 tweets
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The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets
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This is nonsense.

No one does deals to "escape" the WTO. They remain WTO members, bound by the agreements they made in the WTO.

They get some better terms through free trade deals, but the WTO agreements remain the shell. Those free trade agreements reside within the WTO shell
One of the needs of Brexit (whatever the outcome) is to understand the implications for trade, including the WTO and its agreements.

It doesn't help if influential people like @mikegalsworthy & @Scientists4EU can't be bothered to find out what the WTO really is.

Pointers

1/3
Here's somewhere to start: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/wto…

2/3
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Before this week's #Brexit shenanigans, I said this:

"With May as Prime Minister there can be no Brexit deal"

I stand by that statement

I see no way that the #EUCO - ongoing as I write this thread - can give May anything that'll appease the Brexit hard liners in her party

🇪🇺 is not going to make the backstop time limited or allow 🇬🇧 to unilaterally withdraw it. So the deal on the table is essentially unchanged
The Tories reaching across the political divide to Labour still looks like a ridiculously long shot as well:
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Read 16 tweets
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Morning campers, I’ll be live tweeting from the UK parliamentary hearing into @Facebook, misinformation and fake news today. Here’s what you need to know:
Lawmakers from nine countries are here in London to gripe about why Zuckerberg didn’t show up to speak to them. Expect a lot of that, plus Richard Allan, FB’s VP of “policy solutions,” to do a lot of apologizing
Nominally, this hearing is tied to @DamianCollins’ ongoing “fake news” investigation, which has led UK officials traveling to the US for hearings (on taxpayers £). But to be clear, they have no power to actually legislate
Read 43 tweets
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Today’s trade nugget of the day for #Brexit: customs IT system. Whether you are a maxfacker (I’ve always wanted to write this) or a trader: what you want is a paperless customs systems. How is customs IT doing?
The EU is shooting for an IT based system. That’s what Art. 6(1) of the Union Customs Code says.
You might think “oh we all have computers, so what’s the problem” - but you are talking about a highly complex system across 28 (soon 27) countries. In fact, the EU wanted to move to an electronic environment with the 2008 Modernised Customs Code. Turned out that didn’t work.
Read 8 tweets
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1. There are plenty of #Brexit threads kicking around now on why the WTO option is bad. Unless you live in a cave or have the IQ of a halibut, you should by now have grasped the concept of what it means to be a third country and why that is ruinous for UK exporters.
2. You'll note that in the seventeen billion threads I've written on the subject that I seldom make reference to tariffs - because tariffs for the most part are neither here nor there. This is fundamentally about regulatory barriers where again the cave/halibut question kicks in.
3. Without full regulatory harmonisation there will be inspections, standard third country controls will kick in and there are no WTO rules that compel the EU to relax them and certainly not for the sole benefit of the UK. This is why we need a comprehensive agreement with the EU
Read 20 tweets
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HUGE NEWS: Electoral Commission finds Vote Leave broke law during #Brexit ref, issuing fines and reporting 2 people - Darren Grimes + Vote Leave's 'responsible person' David Halsall - to police. Full report is stinging ( electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/…) Here's some key points (thread)
Just before the Brexit vote fashion student Darren Grimes was 'given' £675k. In fact this money was spent on his behalf as @openDemocracy showed last year opendemocracy.net/uk/brexitinc/p…. Elec Comm found that this spending was part of a' common plan with Vote Leave." Which is illegal
Before he teamed up w/Vote Leave Darren Grimes had raised the princely sum of £21.51 - then he got £675k. Grimes told us this was his spending. EC found this 'was substantially inaccurate reporting that has resulted in a lack of transparency about whose spending this was.'
Read 18 tweets
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I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets

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#GDPR #FaceHerFuture #Brexit #BrexitDK #FBPE #underreported #Ireland #Luxembourg #brexit #WTOBrexit #inequality #PeoplesVote #PeoplesVoteMarch #BREXIT #challenge #Sue #poverty #ITA #EU #education #JustSaying #StopBrexit #KeepTheFaith #WindrushGeneration #Brexiters

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