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Richard Baris @Peoples_Pundit
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. If the election was held today, @FLGovScott would defeat incumbent @SenBillNelson. Not just new polls. Gov. Scott is running very strong among the 18-29 bloc, Hispanic voters and seniors. Senator Nelson has never polled this badly among seniors, who could dominate the vote.
2. We know our own state better than any other fake guru, politico, pundit or pollster. Senator Nelson simply cannot offset his deficit among seniors when Gov. Scott is holding down the margins among traditional Democrat voting blocs, and trouncing him everywhere else.
3. Just got a question about what Bill Nelson has to do. First, he's got to firm up Hispanic support. Win back voters w/ pre-Obama history of split tickets; seniors, white men & women age 30-44, conservative-leaning Hispanic females 30-44. He's not doing any of that, nor TWT #1.
FTR & naysayers: Percentage-to-votes, we missed Rick Scott's 2014 margin over Charlie Crist by 4,000 votes. Final #PPDPoll, Scott +1. I'm terribly sorry. We tried to do better in 2016 but missed @realDonaldTrump's by 0.2%. Again, I'll try harder next time. peoplespunditdaily.com/news/elections…
5. Also FTR, the lazy & the naysayers: We did publish the final ranking & result on October 20. But never felt the need to add more than an update to the article because it never changed.
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Have to be honest, the biggest lie tonight was told by Chuck Schumer. After all the hogwash. The lie was "we all support border security."

That's not true. Let's see if Glenn Kessler has the guts.
Second, if he wants to be as effective as he can be, Donald Trump should spend a lot more time in serious mode, like we saw tonight. Now to Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi...
Again, it always is very difficult to follow a president. But Schumer and Pelosi did not come across well, optically. They dismissed migrant human suffering and the deaths of Americans by calling it "manufactured."

They also appeared to concede the effectiveness of a border wall
Read 6 tweets
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1. If someone was elected promising "Hope and Change," but a corrupt status quo accepted him, then what hope was there for change?

None, and to think otherwise is self-delusion.

Real change comes at a cost to stability, and the status quo fights back. They don't roll over.
2. Now for the other side.

The election of one man to the presidency, a revolution does not make. If you were honest, wouldn't you admit that you are too easy on your party?

Everyone wants to blame an "other." But the corrupt status quo & its construct in D.C., are bipartisan.
3. Now for The New York Times, which I'm sure you figured out is the point of this thread.

Aside from their editor trashing them the other day for no longer being a news organization, if you consider them a reliable source of news, they you're a chump. An intel played, chump.
Read 4 tweets
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I have the same advice for Democrats re: AOC as I did for Republicans re: DJT.

Focus on policy and people, and shut your mouths long enough to maybe figure out why it is she resonates.

No one cares what you think. That's why we have them both.

Further...
Notice AOC criticizes but does not obsess over Donald Trump? She's substantively wrong but substantive, nonetheless.

She focuses on policy and people, something she ripped right from Donald Trump. No one cares if someone offends your delicate sensibilities. It's not about you...
Since no one really buys your "I'm so offended" holier/smarter than thou acts, people naturally begin to ask why these outsiders are met with such a visceral response.

B/C they don't buy the holier or smarter than thou acts, they conclude it is B/C they threaten a status quo...
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Don't let #polls determine whether or not you vote. Don't assume a victory or a loss based on current polling. Why? Because they are inherently flawed, and not truly reflective of a whole group of people of any sort. (more)
2/ Polls have two major aspects: Sample and Methodology. These are the parameters that define how the poll is taken and how accurately it reflects a population.
3/ Let's start with sample, also called sample size. It tells you how many people are polled to get the results. Most of the big polls you see in the news have a sample size somewhere around a thousand. This works for the pollsters, because it's a manageable
Read 24 tweets
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1) This is my #Qanon thread for September 2, 2018

Q posts with research tools can be found here: qmap.pub

Q apps for Android:
bit.ly/Q_Drops
bit.ly/Q_Alerts

My theme: Spooks are Spooked
2) #Qanon posted a link to 2 news articles.
3) The first article is about the revelation that China was receiving (in real time) Hillary Clinton's emails.
#Qanon
dailycaller.com/2018/07/12/ig-…
Read 157 tweets
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1/"Ian Paisley apologises at supporters' meeting" bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe… "Mimicking the actions of the Conservative MP Boris Johnson, a number of Mr Paisley's supporters served tea & biscuits to the waiting media."Does that seem like taking the piss' to you? #JustSaying #Brexit
2/ "The North Antrim MP could face a by-election if 10% of his constituents sign a petition. A recall ballot, where voters can sign a petition calling for a by-election, has been opened.The recall petition is the first in UK parliamentary history." #Brexit #Northernireland #Derry
3/ "In politics they say when you are explaining you are often losing the argument. In recent weeks Ian Paisley has been doing a lot of explaining.
This meeting was organised by supporters of Ian Paisley so the suspended MP was speaking to a very receptive audience. He was in
Read 16 tweets
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New Fox News Poll takeaways:
#Trump approval rating 46-51
- among Union Households 52-45
- college educated whites 48-49
- non-college whites 59-38
- Indies 40-48
Approval of the economy
- 53-43; whites 60-35; whites w/ college 57-38; Clinton voters 20-76
Approval of immigration
- 43-55; women 35-62; Trump voters 85-12
Approval of #SCOTUS
- 45-46; Catholics 48-43; White Evangelicals 60-25; Conservatives 75-10
Interested in the 2018 election
Extremely: Dems 54%; GOP 47%; Indies 26%
Clinton Voters 54%; Trump Voters 49%
Read 4 tweets
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If the election were held today, I'm not sure who would win the House. First time I've been able to say that since summer of last year.
Right now my mentions is a war between "SPECIAL ELECTIONS!!!!" and "PRIMARY TURNOUT!!!!" Of course I'm cognizant of both, and think both tell us something, especially the former. 2/
Indeed, the former is why I'd still put a thumb on the scale for Ds. At the same time, while I picked up on the Ds dropoff issue in 2013, and saw the increased primary turnout in 2010, I consider these more qualitative predictors than quantitative. 3/
Read 7 tweets
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#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets

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