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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 @nicktolhurst
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/
 Thread to explain why, strange as this sounds, (& many still don't get this!) - there are no hard Brexit MPs. Even Mogg & Johnson are kind of soft brexiters. Both wanted frictionless trade with EU & no real economic change.

So what happened?
2/
 What Mogg, Johnson & rest wanted was a "soft Brexit on UK Terms". They were so sure this would happen that they barely considered what wld happen if there "hard Brexit talk" didn't result in a "soft Brexit on UK terms".

Thus the fight is not btwn hard & soft Brexit but btwn..
3/ the fight now is btwn those that want to accept reality of situation: that the longed for soft Brexit occurs on EU terms not UKs - and those that are "winging it" for something they never actually wanted & do not yet understand but have talked themselves into...
4/ this is why it's worse than remainers complaining we won't get the Brexit many thought they were voting for. It's actually more bizarre than that: nobody will get the Brexit they voted for - even Mogg. Brexit has left the realm of hard vs soft it's now come down to one thing..
4/ #brexit now purely about how Britain as a nation copes with loss of pride: soft Brexit or remain will be humiliating but no deal will be humiliating loss of power/wealth. Brexit has left realm of economics it's now abt how our country comes to terms socially with this reality.
5/
 Anything now possible from Corbynite socialist backlash against posh elites who caused this, to a nationalist Tory govt convincing half the people it's all Europeans fault. One thing clear, whatever happpens the postwar era of normal managerial UK politics is smashed. Forever.
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More from @nicktolhurst see all

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Small thread to confidently predict the #Brexit end game. Quite simply there is no other plausible scenario then this..

1/ increasingly clear what will happen with #Brexit. The EU will take the #Chequers deal, tweak it, likely beyond recognition, so it fits them.
2/ ..as there is now no time left for negotiations, May will have little resistance to EU. It will be a Canada+ deal with as many optional extras that prompt payment of £39bn can buy - probably not that much. NIreland will be fudged.

Then the great House of Commons showdown...
3/ the great parliamentary showdown simply won’t happen. 650 MPs will be faced with horrible but ultimately easy choice: a lousy deal or a catastrophic no deal. 200 Tory MPs will back govt. it will only take a few dozen Labour MPs to abstain or vote for #brexit and it will pass.
Read 11 tweets
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1/ a short thread on “my family are nice & voted Brexit”.

“.....Or what we remainers failed to understand by the Leave vote...”
2/ remainers talk about the racist or gammon leave voter. But a minority of voters are racist & while you do see angry middle aged men on @bbcquestiontime they’re a small subset.

So my leave voting family - they are nice - why did they vote brexit?

The answer may surprise you..
3/ talking with family in depth on #brexit these last few weeks they didn’t mention any new law making powers, nor that much on the supposed £350m a week we’ll get back - they never thought they’d see much of it. Even immigration wasn’t really as important topic as some assume...
Read 7 tweets
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++BREAKING ++

At least 3 separate sources revealing immigrant children in US "injected with 'behavioral drugs' at detention centers".
A newspaper in Tulsa has now confirmed legal case has been triggered on this.
UK newspaper picks up on the reports of immigrant children “forcibly being injected at border detention faculties”.

mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/i…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Thread:
Lately I have become a bit obsessed with Britain’s trade deficit and Balance of Payments with the Rest of The World(ROW). Let me explain why, and what’s it got to do with #Brexit.
For me as a UK-expat in Euroland I have seen the value of my pension drop by 20% since the dreaded referendum.
Let’s home in on what happened around the time of the referendum. Although part of a longer term decline, the sharp drop did not go unnoticed by the commentariat. Sharp drop in Sterling rate highlighted June July 2016Cartoon of pound falling off cliff
Read 22 tweets
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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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Thread: How are UK online news outlets covering #Brexit in 2018? An analysis, with data and charts!

Part 3: Who’s outperforming the Shadow Cabinet in terms of influencing the #Brexit debate?

Answer: A small handful of Conservative & Labour Backbench MPs...

Read more...
For previous pieces (and methodology), see:

DExEU vs Shadow DExEU: and

Cabinet vs Shadow Cabinet:
So in yesterday's analysis, we saw how the Labour Frontbench had failed to drive column inches across online news outlets. Today, I look at how the Backbenchers and @LibDems are influencing the #Brexit debate.
Read 24 tweets
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THREAD: Today's events in Westminster - which relate to the process and not the substance of Brexit - do not change the fundamental mess and chaos of Brexit. The UK is heading for a bad Brexit deal but its not a done deal - a lot will happen between now and the Autumn. /1
Its disappointing the so called "Grieve 2" amendment did not pass this afternoon (I,of course, voted for it) but significant that Ministers were forced to climb down and issue a statement acknowledging Parliament's vital role at the end of the process. /2
There are still 5 #Brexit related Bills still to make their way through Parliament which are legally binding and amendable: Customs Bill; Trade Bill; Fisheries Bill; Agriculture Bill; and, Immigration Bill. There will also be a huge number of statutory instruments to pass too. /3
Read 10 tweets
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Thread: For our family business, there's no doubt #Brexit will have an impact - the question is how bad it will be. Meanwhile, the chaos surrounding Brexit leaves us in limbo, unable to continue the expansion which has helped us create jobs and aid other firms. @fascinatorfun
1. We sell cosmetic supplies and ingredients to home users and other SMEs - 66% of our sales are to customers in the EU. We rely on frictionless trade to get goods to these customers cheaply and quickly.
2. We sell to thousands of producers of soaps and cosmetics. The most obvious and possibly most pressing issue is the inevitable increase in cost and complexity of trade without access to the customs union and single market.
Read 12 tweets
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1) #Brexit & Futility, thread
If there's one thing that we know, it's that no majority voted for the kind of Brexit we're heading for.

Some of us can breath a sigh of relief, but it's tinged with frustration - there's no point to this #Brexit, but it's the only one possible
2) it will be clear to most of us that the Unicorn #Brexit promised by Leave (no cost Free Trade deal on our terms, no negative impacts) was always impossible & simply a ruse to get votes.

Leavers have to accept that they fell for it to a greater or lesser degree
3) to those who say "no, we knew what we were voting for", well, you may say you were voting for a hard Brexit but based on chats on Twitter most of you were still actually voting for an "on our terms" Brexit
Read 8 tweets

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