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Ben Casselman @bencasselman
, 11 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
U.S. has added an average of 221,000 jobs per month over past six months, 2.4 million total over past year. If anything, trend is accelerating.
But the "but" is the same as always: wages. Average hourly earnings up 2.7%, which is less than most recent inflation reading (ahead of core). And growth rate not picking up.
One clear positive: Manufacturing. Sector has now added jobs every month for a year, for total of 327k new jobs. No sign tariffs have dented hiring so far.
Another positive: Prime-age employment rate (ages 25-54) broke out of recent doldrums, now at highest level of the recovery.
Fewer people are working part-time because they can't find full-time work. The surprising uptick earlier this year has now fully reversed.
Interestingly, oil & gas sector cut jobs for first time this year. Hiring there has been fairly "meh" despite big increase in the rig count.
Retail rebound looks a bit less impressive after recent revisions, but definitely not looking as grim as it was in early 2017, when we were all talking about a "retail apocalypse."
Adjusting for demographic changes, the employment rate has fully recovered from the recession. But it remains well below its dot-com era high.
The unemployment rate for African-Americans ticked up again in July, further reversing the big drop in May (which always looked like an outlier). But overall trend strongly positive.
The recovery is reaching the most vulnerable: Unemployment rate for Americans without a high school diploma hit 5.1 percent in July -- the lowest level on record. (Data back to 1992.)
Share of the population that's employed full-time has rebounded sharply in recent years. Still well below prerecession level, but this isn't adjusted for aging population.
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