1. The old saying is true, most of the time—all politics is local. Indeed, the government we experience directly is state & local. But we have never had a president who gobbles up so much attention. For now, the opposite might be truer, & more accurate. All politics is national.
2. This idea was reinforced Monday at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislators. GOP leaders in red and swing states told The Hill that Donald Trump’s unpopularity was bearing down on members, even those largely unknown in their districts. thehill.com/homenews/campa…
3. While vulnerable Republicans say they support Trump, “many privately said his leadership style and polarizing nature would make their re-election bids more difficult.”
4. The Hill report came out Tuesday morning. By Tuesday evening, we saw a clear illustration of this concern. That’s when Democrat Danny O’Connor nearly won or barely lost a special election in Ohio’s 12th district. (The race is still too close to call.)
5. The district is mostly rural and suburban, relatively affluent, and it went to Trump by double digits (11 points) in 2016. Though Troy Balderson declared victory, O’Connor was in any event able to prove what had been suspected:
6. the Republican Party’s message of tax cuts and deregulation could not match the gravitational pull of Trump’s historic unpopularity.
7. Connecticut isn’t Ohio, of course, but I suspect we’re going to see our own version of “all politics is national” that will impact our elections in ways large & small. Ways large: Dems holding on to the governor’s office despite its occupant being nearly universally disliked.
8. Ways small: Democratic voters choosing between evenly matched party candidates for attorney general. One of them would have the advantage under a Democratic president. But the other has it under President Trump.
9. he leading Democratic candidates are state Rep. @WilliamTongCT, of Stratford, and @ChrisMatteiCT, a former U.S. attorney. (@pauldoyle4ct, a state senator from Wethersfield, is also running.)
10. Mattei is the prosecutor who put former Gov. John Rowland behind bars for corruption and other crimes. Tong is co-chairman of the state legislature’s law-writing judiciary committee. Like I said, evenly matched.
11. If Hillary Clinton had won the presidency, I’d say Mattei would have the upper-hand in the AG race. He prosecuted successfully the man who may be most responsible for Connecticut’s endless fiscal woes.
12. But Clinton lost, and the current president has enacted immigration policies that some may consider sadistic. For that reason, Tong, the first Chinese-American to receive a major-party endorsement for statewide office, is the clear favorite.
13. Without Trump, a message about fighting crime and battling corruption would be a winner for Mattei. But under Trump, I don’t see his story beating Tong’s. Indeed, Tong is already working that angle.
14. In April, he told the Courant: “If you are like us. If you come from working people. Or if you are a person of color. A woman. Or if you just want decent health insurance. The President of the United States has declared war on you and your family.”
15. All politics is national? This year, anyway.
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