Long Brexit survey from YouGov with some interesting findings. Full results well worth looking at. It confirms the now standard pattern of a consistent Remain lead but with a still stubbornly high Leave vote (53 vs 47%). However... /1
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There is a big decline in support for a 'no deal Brexit' which now stands at 27% (down from 38% in the poll from the earlier in the month) /2
This suggests the extremely negative economic implications of 'no deal' are beginning to cut through to parts of the Leave electorate /3
More importantly, though the headline Leave/Remain figure isn't significantly shifting yet, other question responses suggests the Leave vote is increasingly fragile /4
62% of 2016 Leave voters agree with the statement "Problems in the negotiations with the EU make it likely that Britain will get a bad deal" /5
84% of Leave voters (and 2016 Leave voters) agree with the statement "The process of leaving the EU so far has been a mess" /6
58% of Leave voters (and 60% 2016 Leave voters) also agree with the statement "It is likely that many of the promises made by politicians in favour of leaving the EU will be broken /7
And - finally - the big figure for me, 19% of Leave voters i.e. a potentially huge swing, say they would reconsider their vote if "The UK would still have to obey EU regulations without having any say in them" /8
Note that this state of affairs - the condition of being a 'rule taker and not a rule maker' - is already present in the Chequers plan and that further major concession will be necessary for the UK to secure a final deal with the EU /9
Question then is whether some kind of major political crisis, or a shift in Labour Party policy, could peel off enough of this fragile Leave vote to give Remain a larger, more comfortable lead (and thereby create big pressure for a 2nd ref)
