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Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
It’s elxn season in BiH which means that it’s time for nationalist parties to propose new maps, not new policies. In this fantastical version, HDZ’s desired “3rd entity” involves splicing off territories in RS not just FBiH as has to date been the norm. m.vijesti.ba/clanak/416478/…
Need a thread just on administrative re-divisions proposed in BiH since 1996. No other country in the world continues to be so consumed with its own internal own cartography as BiH, all thx to nationalist pols who’d rather talk about anything but accountability & rule of law.
Unfortunately, in the context of th Vucic-Dodik-Thaci axis pushing the partition of Kosovo (as a first step twds partition of BiH) this kind of “map talk” only makes an already tense situation still more charged. Dangerous rumors meant to sow fear & chaos.
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Most revealing aspect of the Gruevski escape story is how it marks Hungary’s most overt power move in the Balkans to date. Orban has been poking around Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia & Serbia for a while. But this seems designed to poke Brussels in the eye. theguardian.com/world/2018/nov…
Hungary is also the latest foreign illiberal/authoritarian state to make a play to push out or at least diminish already waning EU and US influence in the region. Between Orban, Putin, Erdogan, Xi, and the Gulf monarchs, the Balkans are a geopolitical fire sale these days.
And despite the self-evident absurdity of the claim that the “EU is the only game in town”, too many in Brussels & Washington still persist in the belief that this new “authoritarian international”, as I call it my book, is only a marginal, “spoiler” phenomenon. Foolish.
Read 5 tweets
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There are no exceptional people nor exceptional states. There are only exceptional circumstances. And in these, all things become possible. Tonight, another far-right candidate has triumphed in another democratic polity. This is no longer exceptional, these are our times.
A generation of American & European reporters never quite bought the stories so many Bosnians & Yugoslavs told them; that even on the eve of war, no one believed it. Not here, not in Sarajevo, not in the Olympic city, not where a third of all marriages were mixed. Believe now.
Combine a few yrs of economic, social, and political crisis and every society will become ripe for sectarianism and, ultimately, fascism. Democracies last longer under pressure, and have more procedural and institutional fail-safes. But they are not immune. No society is.
Read 5 tweets
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Obviously Trump’s sudden call for civility is disingenuous. But it’s worse than that: if Ds & the press are truly “enemies of the ppl”/“deep state” as he so often claims, his rhetoric recasts violence against them as rationale, self-defense. It’s a extremist canard.
“Our violence is an act of self-defense and/or a response to *their* (imagined) violence” is the hallmark of extremist movements throughout history. That’s the whole point of dehumanizing your opponents as traitors/heretics; so you can have license to exterminate them.
This may seem like splitting hairs but it’s important: extreme rhetoric invites, indeed, demands extreme responses from those who buy into it. That’s why hate speech/demagoguery are not mere words: they’re clearly calls to action, to mobilization, and confrontation.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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#Khashoggi Case Thread: I am going to ‘pin’ this post to use it as an ‘Info Thread’ on the #Khashoggi Case. I am in #Turkey. I’ve been following the case closely and with access to sources & experts here. This is a very ‘sensitive’ criminal case due to ‘Diplomatic Booby Traps’!!!
The Evidence Obtained Outside Cameras will not show any evidence of ‘tempering’ but other than license plates of dozens of diplomatic cars (Many with tinted windows-large trunks) with related time stamp, drivers Info, model/year: Nothing.
#Turkish Intel-Investigative Bodies also have the list of all Diplomatic & Private Saudi & “other significant’ Planes in #Turkey for the period of ‘interest.’ Many of the Target airports have their own security cameras & related evidence.
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#New Traders, Understand #Mathematics Of #Profit In Market Before You Put Hard #Earned Money On Risk.

Expectancy = Success Rate x Reward Risk Ratio

Lets Talk About Expectancy Of Short Term Directional Trading System.

Read On (1/n)
Success Rate = No Of Profitable Tades/ No Of Loss Making Trades

Reward Risk Ratio = Average Profit Per Trade / Average Loss Per Trade

If Success Rate is 0.5 and Reward Risk 2, Then

Expectancy = 2 x 0.5 =1

For Making Profit, Expectancy Should Be Positive Number (2/n)
To Calculate Expectancy, You Need Defined System With Rules To Get Success Rate and Reward Risk. If You Have No System To Take Decisions, You Are Hanging In Thin Air and Will Never No Whether You Will Keep Making Or Loosing Money In Future (3/n)
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After the threads from @conspirator0 and @propornot re: @propornotapp (now suspended), decided to look for any interesting breadcrumbs they may have left behind. Wound up learning about #Nationalist parties of Bulgaria and a few other tidbits. #osint #bots #disinformation
First thing that turned up was this article from the site newsbeezer(.)com (site title: Bulgaria Evening News). As you can see in the screenshot, @PropOrNotApp is quoted discussing conditions during fires in neighboring Greece. Sure, why not?
What else is on this site? Well, they appear to be big fans of the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria, normally abbreviated to NFSB, though oddly they seem to alternate the abbreviation between NFFS and NPSB. Neither appear affiliated with another political party.
Read 17 tweets
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NEW
The princes, the president and the fortune seekers

HI BROIDY. apnews.com/a3521859cf8d4c…
In a yearlong pursuit of money and influence, Elliot Broidy & George Nader played Middle East countries against each other, as they leveraged connections stretching from Persian Gulf palaces to the Oval Office into millions of dollars in contracts.
Nader & Broidy pushed the interests of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates at the highest levels of the U.S. government.
Read 78 tweets
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#NEW on ARC2020: #CAP & #MFF | Eco-Spin without Public Goods Substance.
Its been 2 weeks since the MFF proposals, here's our round up of some of the perspectives so far.
All perspective-givers tagged in picture.
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
What's needed?
@davidbaldock & Allan Buckwell of @IEEP_eu:
1: Sufficient funding for environmental measures in Pillar 1
2: Specifics for New Delivery Model
3: Flexibility for Pillar 1 to 2 transfers
4. Fund ANCs under Pillar 1
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
#MFF #FutureofCAP #CAP
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Why @AnnikaAhtonen of @epc_eu
Read 8 tweets
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#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets

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