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fred hickey @htsfhickey
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Response tonight to smart guy's question to me. Sees "no floor" for gold& "Doesn't know what to think." Me:You should think we live in a warped world (thanks Fed)where government debts are out of control, debasement is the cure and 20-yr old dweebs can program their computers...
to take correlations(erroneously)to extremes(using huge amounts of leverage).Fed "normalization" will not work(as is the assumption).It's already blowing up the "delusive" objects - first cryptos, then emerging markets, now spreading into other parts of world (global stocks down)
No floor? - that's always the cry near major bottoms. I have cash at the ready - I'll end up making money on this panic. Just looking for signs of bottom (example: big reversal). Huge GDX volume 2day (biggest of yr.). Hopefully more panic tomorrow - maybe then we'll get the turn
When turn comes,it'll be violent due to record,off-the-charts spec shorts. In meantime,turn off the idiot box(CNBC),take a walk,clear your head&don't listen to the naysayers-they are ALWAYS legion at bottoms.I'm going to block all counterproductive troll responses to these tweets
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Some may be wondering why the 10AM gold smackdown when DXY $ index was down&yuan was up too. The early AM rally had taken gold futures to just below key technical "resistance" level&any higher would've caused those record,off-the-charts shorts a lot of pain. So it was beaten down
If one looks back at the early 2016 gold short squeeze (& I have)these same types of battles occurred in first couple of weeks before shorts were overrun (and then the gold rally really got going). But before that - it was two steps forward& one step back type-battles with shorts
I don't buy all the govt conspiracy theories that gold's being "suppressed." It's the large spec traders (always wrong at inflection points). In early 2016 there were huge numbers of spec. shorts (who got it wrong). Six mos. later they were record long (& wrong again).
Read 3 tweets
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WSJ headline this AM - "U.S. Stocks poised to Enter Longest Bull Market" Might be time to reflect back on just how negative people were on March 9, 2009 "CNN/Money "Special Report issue #1: America's Money Crisis" headline:"For Dow, another 12-year low" money.cnn.com/2009/03/09/mar…
From the March 9, 2009 (stock mkt bottom) CNN story: "We're seeing more of the same," said John Buckingham, chief investment officer at Al Frank Asset Management. "With an absence of good news, the path of least resistance is down." "every rally attempt is being met with selling"
Nathan Mayer Rothschild reportedly coined the maxim:"Buy on the sound of cannons,sell on the sound of trumpets." With all these "longest bull market record" stories - anyone hearing the trumpets? No one can seem to see or hear the sound of Fed rate hikes &QT tightening(deaf&dumb)
Read 4 tweets
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Looking at chart of total world gold ETF holdings(last 14 yrs). Decline in holdings during recent gold dump is a tiny blip, unlike massive liquidation during 2013-2015 bear mkt. Managed Money (mostly levered hedge funds) Net Short (-77.3K), however, is truly off-the-charts.
The Managed Money Net Gold short(-77.3K)is record by a factor of nearly 4X previous record near 2015 bottom.The bottom in Nov 2008 had 40K net longs.This gold attack was all MM shorts.Not ETF dumps,central banks are buying,Asian seasonal demand has picked up-premiums thruout Asia
Note: Managed Money records have been kept since 2006 - but it's highly likely it's the all-time record.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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1. Ok, a quick thread on what I think was a very significant ideological fight that happened last week. The dispute was over something known as #PayGo and while it appeared to concern boring government budgeting questions, it is actually about the nature of money and democracy.
2. Money is a very weird thing. It is at heart a commodity that a group agrees is a medium of exchange. What gives money value is both a collective belief it does, and an enforcement trigger, ie taxing authority. Dollars have value bc the U.S. gov't collects taxes in dollars.
3. The value of money is essentially the amount of money in circulation versus how much stuff the economy produces. If you have a bigger economy you need more money to match that increased trade. Money is permission to use resources, the more resources the more money you need.
Read 23 tweets
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1/ Below is a Q3 2018 update on the global monetary base, or base money. This is certainly not the M1 money supply. Not M2. Not M3. The distinction is important. What is base money? Is it #gold? Is it government fiat? #Bitcoin?? Have some charts to share. This is installment #2…
2/ To begin, it's important to understand the universal accounting identity: Assets = Debt + Equity. Today, it's true that all fiat money is debt-based. But before exploring fiat money, let's look at asset-based money.
3/ Traditionally, commodity money has been asset-based, most notably gold. Gold is a true asset of the holder. If you own gold free and clear, it is your asset, and no one else's debt, no one else's liability.
Read 64 tweets
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New thread. Judge Kavanuagh= (K going forward.) on deck. So let's roll.

Grassley explaining he is entering all three witness testimony into the record. Sworn under threat of perjury. Explaining that the Dems are resisting at all levels. Kavanuagh taking oath
K making opening statement. Strong voice. A hint of anger. New statement. No one has seen this before.. All new. must watch.
K is laying out the facts. He is breaking the hammer. Glorious.
Read 112 tweets
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Gold: Sitting like a Coiled Spring, #gold remains below $1200/oz on Monday, although it has recovered a little ground from the lows last week. 1/7
Gold: Why did I use the ‘Coiled Spring’ analogy? Because of build-up of Managed Money short #gold positions held on the Comex Futures market. Gross Managed Money short positions increased by a further 1.7 million ounces last week and now stand at a new record 18.8moz. 2/7
Gold: This has driven the net Managed Money #gold position to a larger net short position. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
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Bought a lot of #gold today. Going home now because I think I might throw up.
Gold vs Commercial Short position with Daily Sentiment (DSI) indicated in red. I'm estimating real time commercial shorts are now less than 50k (green box) and maybe even lower.
1/ I have received so many DMs, emails and phone calls regarding the initial tweet about #Gold (above from Thursday) that I’m going to try and explain my thinking here. Hopefully it translates into a coherent answer.
Read 26 tweets
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Okay, since the post-FISA Russia gaslighting has begun, let's sum up why the Trumper arguments about "no collusion" and "no crime" and all that crap are not only wrong, but morally deficient. Yes, including the Fusion and Steele issue. /1
First, the "dossier." A GOP operative hires a dirt-gathering oppo firm, backs out, and that assignment gets taken over by a firm working for the Dems. They are paying a company whose job it is to get dirt to go get dirt. This firm - duh - has foreign contractors like Steele. /2
Foreign contractor uses his contacts in a world of Very Bad Guys to see what he can turn up, because (a) oppo, and (b) he is, you know, a former spy. He writes a raw file - not a final report - that says: "Here's some hideous dirt, but I can't vouch for all of it." /3
Read 16 tweets

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