THE 538 HOUSE MODEL JUST LAUNCHED: 53eig.ht/2MRWqFs
The default version of our model, which we call Classic, shows Democrats with a 3 in 4 chance of winning the House and Republicans with a 1 in 4 chance of keeping it. So things are a long way from certain, but it's also not right to call it a toss-up. 
With a broad playing field, the range of outcomes is quite wide: the middle 80 percent of the probability distribution covers everything from a 14-seat gain for Democrats (not enough to take the House) to 58 (!!) seats.
In addition to Classic, there are two other versions of the model called Lite (basically "polls-only") and Deluxe (which incorporates expert ratings e.g. from @CookPolitical). They show pretty similar results, though, with Democrats having about a 7 in 10 chance of a takeover.
We'll be adding a lot more detail and functionality to the model in the days and weeks ahead—we didn't want to delay launch once the topline numbers were ready. For more detail on how the model works, see here: 53eig.ht/2wb8k6b
p.s. The chances our model gives Democrats—between 70 and 75 percent depending on what version you look at—are pretty much exactly the odds that Hillary Clinton had of winning in 2016! So hopefully everyone's learned their lesson and won't mistake that for a sure thing. 😂😂😂
