Profile picture
Judd Legum @JuddLegum
, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Hey everyone

There are 806 days between now and Election Day 2020

Trump can win again

Let's discuss

popular.info/p/trump-can-wi…
2. The biggest advantage in American politics is incumbency.

4 out of the last 5 incumbent presidents have one

Tactically, Trump can leverage the power of the government to change the political conversation whenever he wants

popular.info/p/trump-can-wi…
3. Aggregate economic stats are largely positive. If they stay that way, it gives Trump a powerful reelection message that he is an effective steward of the economy

(For workers its not great. Real wages are down but this is more complicated to explain)

popular.info/p/trump-can-wi…
4. Trump will have an actual Democratic opponent

Whatever scandals or controversies that opponent is dealing with as election day approaches will be treated as equal or greater to whatever Trump is dealing with

popular.info/p/trump-can-wi…
5. Trump has a strong base impervious to negative news and control over what is effectively a state-run propaganda network (Fox News) that reaches million of people ever day

Hard to imagine what, at this point, could shake the confidence of his base

popular.info/p/trump-can-wi…
6. Lots of voters oppose Trump but their views don't count if they don't vote. There is a systematic voter suppression campaign being waged across the country to prevent people from voting

popular.info/p/trump-can-wi…
7. Russia is still actively trying to interfere in the midterm elections and will certainly redouble their efforts for Trump in 2020

Whatever they spent in 2016 has paid off big time

popular.info/p/trump-can-wi…
8. More on Trump's chances in my newsletter, Popular Information.

Sign up at popular.info
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Judd Legum
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JuddLegum see all

Profile picture
TRUMP: "At the request of Democrats it will be a steel barrier rather than a concrete wall."

What Democrat has requested a border wall made of steel?
TRUMP: "The border wall would very quickly pay for itself."

Absolutely no evidence of this. Trump cites the cost of illegal drugs, most of which come through official ports of entry.
TRUMP: "The wall will also be paid for indirectly by the great new trade deal we have made with Mexico."

This is not true. And the deal hasn't even been approved by Congress.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
A total and humiliating capitation to a president with no interest in the truth.

The news media is supposed to inform the public.

They are now being used to disseminate government propaganda.
REMEMBER: When Obama wanted to address the nation on immigration, the networks refused to air it because they believe it would be "overtly political."

What a joke.

goo.gl/a8SSgT
The idea that a Democratic rebuttal or fact-checking will make this better is insulting.

If I break my arm and a doctor gives me a cast, I'm thankful.

If a doctor breaks my arm and hands me a band-aid, it's not a favor.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Any network that airs this live is knowingly participating in a disinformation campaign
Some conflicting info, but @JenniferJJacobs of Bloomberg says the networks will air this live

This show just how deeply the mainstream media misunderstands Trump and his tactics

@JenniferJJacobs This is what happened when Obama gave a primetime address on immigration in 2014
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
1. The Editorial Board’s mission is to cut through the noise by speaking plainly about politics. That mission is especially relevant now after so many spent so much time this weekend explaining why the Democrats lost the battle over Brett Kavanaugh.
2. Here’s a reality check. The Republicans had the advantage. They always had the advantage. There are 51 Republicans in the Senate. There are 49 Dems. The GOP needed a majority to confirm. They could have lost one Republican. The vice president would then have broken the tie.
3. It was a numbers game in the beginning. It was a numbers game at the end. Everything else might have impacted those numbers. But don’t let possibilities take away from this stone-cold and fundamental fact: the GOP had more votes.
Read 15 tweets
Profile picture
1. This week will be rife with push and pull. The Democrats want to see more. The Republicans want to see less. But let’s not lose sight of where we are heading. No matter how wide, or narrow, the investigation’s scope is, the Republicans are signalling it’s Kavanaugh or bust.
2. The Republicans seem prepared to overlook or ignore incriminating evidence in order to transform the United States Supreme Court for the next 30 years, even if that means losing the House and the Senate.
3. It’s still unclear why the Republicans are all-in for Kavanaugh. Any apparatchik will do. Much better to cut him off in order to go with a nominee with less baggage. Yes, the Republicans say they fear losing the Senate if they fail, but that always felt like rationalizing.
Read 18 tweets
Profile picture
“One thing I still haven’t figured out well, and I don’t think anyone really has, is how to capture Trump’s level of rally unhingedness in a regular article. The only good way is to list like 30 things he said.”
Trump wrongly claims nobody would have believed him if he’d promised there’d be 3.3 million jobs added between now and Election Day. Over the previous 18-month period, under Obama, there were 3.9 million jobs added.
Trump falsely claims that wages are “finally going up” for “the first time in many, many years.” Wages have been rising since 2014. The current pace, 2.6% in April, is lower than the pace in Obama’s last full month in office, 2.7%.
Read 22 tweets
Profile picture
Trump is beginning a campaign rally in Nashville. In this thread there will be tweets about it.
"I love country music," Trump says.
Trump says "people are saying" that he's the only politician that "produced more than I said I was going to produce." He started saying this at rallies and then eventually started attributing it to "people."
Read 55 tweets
Profile picture
THREAD

#Nikulin #SDNY #Giuliani #Comey #HumaAbedin #ComeyLetter #FBI #HillaryClinton
1. Today it became known that #Czech Authorities has extradited Yevgeni #Nikulin
to the #UnitedStates

reuters.com/article/us-cze…
2.#Nikulin faces indictments for Hacking #LinkedIn, #Dropbox and #Formspring in the #UnitedStates

justice.gov/opa/pr/yevgeni… …
Read 57 tweets
Profile picture
#Trump was not elected president because he did not win the electoral vote via @RealTimBlack #TimBlackShow #Resist
#Trump used the same trick as George W did in Florida. By removing voters of color in 28 states, Trump supposedly won the electoral college.
#Trump is not our legitimate president, rather he's the Commander-in-Thief! via @RealTimBlack #TimBlackShow #Resist
Read 29 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Syria #NorthKorea #Istanbul #Trump #NeverForget #Hillary #Prague #Andrews #Leviev #PrinceAndrew #October #WI1 #WISCONSIN #Assassination #Kushner #DeepState #Mogilevich #Reichstag #Kashoggi #SteeleDossier #Gülen #Russians #CEO #NYT #MoneyLaundering

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!