Thread by @Helenreflects

Many people, including @johnmcdonnellMP say that " a second Brexit referendum could lead to social unrest"

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…

Let's analyse that claim 1/

We don't know what Brexit will look like, but every possible outcome will be worse than the status quo, even according to the government's own projections.
That means concretely a decrease in standard of living even in best case scenario. 2/

A no-deal scenario will be a disaster, let's call it what it is. Food and medicine shortages, fuel shortages and electricity outages. Not enough care workers, doctors, nurses, teachers. Lots of wishful thinking in the no-deal Brexit prep documents of UK government. 3/

This would lead to unprecedented social unrest. Already now, the idea of stockpiling and contingency planning in peacetime, totally self-inflicted, should ring alarm bells. 4/

But even if we assume there will be a deal, the UK will be significantly worse off (again, by their own DExEU department). Now here's the interesting thing. Support for UKIP and Leave is significantly linked to austerity blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol… 5/

So if the surge in UKIP since 2010 due to austerity was so high, imagine what happens after Brexit, there's no protest Brexit vote available anymore. But with Brexit, we'll have austerity on steroids. The inevitable result: rise in UKIP support and social unrest. 6/

We now have a situation where, *no matter what happens*, UKIP will surge in popularity
If Brexit is stopped, UKIP will rise because "betrayal"
If no deal, UKIP will rise bc it's the fault of Europe/the foreigners etc
If a deal, UKIP will rise bc of austerity on steroids 7/

I honestly see no way out of this situation. A solution would involve politicians being honest with the people and not blaming national failings on the EU or foreigners. But it's highly misleading and selective to say that a second vote would lead to social unrest 8/

Social unrest is going to happen, no matter what. That's the grim truth about the UK and something to keep in mind for people as they consider whether they want to keep living here /ends