High timeframe trend following strategy for alts.
Use turtlebc buy market percentage signal: turtlebc.com/tools/buy_perc…
Three phases:
1. ACC: if <10% then alts accumulation
2. HOLD: if >10% hold alts.
3. USD: if <25% sell alts directly to fiat.
USD phase only if >75% during HOLD!
Use turtlebc buy market percentage signal: turtlebc.com/tools/buy_perc…
Three phases:
1. ACC: if <10% then alts accumulation
2. HOLD: if >10% hold alts.
3. USD: if <25% sell alts directly to fiat.
USD phase only if >75% during HOLD!
Backtesting last year with this strategy.
Notes:
- you will never catch bottoms and tops with this strategy
- ACC should be taken very slow, using TA+FA to choose single altcoins to be accumulated
- USD should be taken as a “get the fuck out” signal and performed immediately
Notes:
- you will never catch bottoms and tops with this strategy
- ACC should be taken very slow, using TA+FA to choose single altcoins to be accumulated
- USD should be taken as a “get the fuck out” signal and performed immediately
Bonus: during HOLD take advantage of bull trend and volatility to integrate a rebalancing approach. Have a look at @ShrimpyApp
Using a 1h rebalancing on alts should give you better performance than just hodling. An analysis here: hackernoon.com/rebalance-vs-h…
Using a 1h rebalancing on alts should give you better performance than just hodling. An analysis here: hackernoon.com/rebalance-vs-h…
@ShrimpyApp Have a look also at the fantastic BMP coded by @WhoCrypto : cryptowho.de/charts/buy-mar…
It’s a free tool that can also support this kind of strategy.
It’s a free tool that can also support this kind of strategy.
Passive income strategy:
⁃during USD phase sell also the passive income alts (clean slate) with goal to rebuy them lower in the next ACC phase
⁃when rewards + cycle profit > initial investment, the MN is allocated to long term freeroll portfolio
⁃during USD phase sell also the passive income alts (clean slate) with goal to rebuy them lower in the next ACC phase
⁃when rewards + cycle profit > initial investment, the MN is allocated to long term freeroll portfolio
Passive income monthly actions:
⁃sell rewards to fiat
⁃1/4 monthly rewards are invested to non crypto: stocks, silver/gold
⁃if monthly rewards > real life income then reinvest the rest in MNs and other passive income plays
⁃sell rewards to fiat
⁃1/4 monthly rewards are invested to non crypto: stocks, silver/gold
⁃if monthly rewards > real life income then reinvest the rest in MNs and other passive income plays
Global crypto portfolio allocations:
ACC and HOLD phase:
⁃min 10% fiat
⁃min 20% BTC
⁃max 50% alts
⁃max 20% long term passive income
USD phase:
⁃80% FIAT
⁃20% long term passive income
ACC and HOLD phase:
⁃min 10% fiat
⁃min 20% BTC
⁃max 50% alts
⁃max 20% long term passive income
USD phase:
⁃80% FIAT
⁃20% long term passive income
Swing trading with BTC allocation:
During HOLD phase some swing trading plays are possible with the BTC portfolio allocation with the following rules:
- max 2% portfolio risk
- stop loss mandatory
- R:R >1.5
- max 5 plays at the time
- no margin trading!
During HOLD phase some swing trading plays are possible with the BTC portfolio allocation with the following rules:
- max 2% portfolio risk
- stop loss mandatory
- R:R >1.5
- max 5 plays at the time
- no margin trading!
Other macro trend indicators:
1. NVT Signal (by @woonomic and @Kalichkin)
NVT > 150 -> overbought
NVT < 45 -> oversold
charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-si…
woobull.com/nvt-signal-a-n…
2. BTC retail volume vs overall (by @cryptorae)
tradingview.com/script/zSkZhP1…
1. NVT Signal (by @woonomic and @Kalichkin)
NVT > 150 -> overbought
NVT < 45 -> oversold
charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-si…
woobull.com/nvt-signal-a-n…
2. BTC retail volume vs overall (by @cryptorae)
tradingview.com/script/zSkZhP1…
Note on rebalancing, works better every hour with a basket of 20 mid-caps.
Additional alt strategy by @ismailtarim977
Detecting general macro trend of alts by using HMA50 & HMA80 crosses on 1D
medium.com/@ismailtarim97…
Detecting general macro trend of alts by using HMA50 & HMA80 crosses on 1D
medium.com/@ismailtarim97…
Putting together a daily routine:
BTC macro view:
- BTC 1D HMA 55/80
- NVT signal
Alts macro view:
- Turtlebc BMP
- Global alts 1D HMA 55/80
Actions:
- ACC: look for alts: charts + CT
- HOLD: alt swings (CT/discord) + 4h EMA 30/60
- USD: switch between USD/BTC: HMA 55/80 + CT
BTC macro view:
- BTC 1D HMA 55/80
- NVT signal
Alts macro view:
- Turtlebc BMP
- Global alts 1D HMA 55/80
Actions:
- ACC: look for alts: charts + CT
- HOLD: alt swings (CT/discord) + 4h EMA 30/60
- USD: switch between USD/BTC: HMA 55/80 + CT
Adding also BTC retail vs overall volume on BTC macro view.
Did a deep dive on combining together he indicators:
I will soon aggregate the results in a strategy workflow.
I will soon aggregate the results in a strategy workflow.
High timeframe trend following strategy for alts workflows
Phases:
- ACC: accumulate alts
- HOLD: hold alts
- TRIG: hodl alts, get ready to sell
- USD: sell to fiat
- BTC: sell to BTC
Rinse, repeat, profit! 🤑
Phases:
- ACC: accumulate alts
- HOLD: hold alts
- TRIG: hodl alts, get ready to sell
- USD: sell to fiat
- BTC: sell to BTC
Rinse, repeat, profit! 🤑
How to accumulate alts? I checked last three years, the median duration of ACC phase is 23 days.
You can accumulate by dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Every day you buy alts using 5% of your allocated funds.
Note: always keep BTC in case after HODL you come back to a 2nd ACC!
You can accumulate by dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Every day you buy alts using 5% of your allocated funds.
Note: always keep BTC in case after HODL you come back to a 2nd ACC!
Backtesting my strategy from Oct '17 gives a 16.75x USD, around 18x in BTC at current prices. 🤑
Including beginning of 2017 requires a switch to log chart and the returns go to a whooping 470x USD 🤯
As you can see the ACC phase is critical. You can mitigate temporary losses by using the DCA approach, around 20% every ACC phase.
For comparison purpose I added a backtesting of @ismailtarim977 HMA55/80 from Oct '17. By just swinging between BTC and USD according to HMAs you can get an impressive 11.15x in BTC.
Adding alts to the mix can further improve the strategy by 50%
Adding alts to the mix can further improve the strategy by 50%
I need to sleep. Sorry, it's 11.15x in USD. Alts mix strategy is still better with 16.5x in USD.
By extending the backtesting to Jan '17 the gap between BTC only (19x USD) and mixed alt strategy (470x USD) gets huge.
Digging further on reverse-engineering the TurtleBC BMP graph.
The graph is generated using only Poloniex pairs, so it could be now a bit more conservative/lagging because the real action is on Binance.
But alts are highly correlated so I don’t think it’s a bit issue.
The graph is generated using only Poloniex pairs, so it could be now a bit more conservative/lagging because the real action is on Binance.
But alts are highly correlated so I don’t think it’s a bit issue.
