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Brendan Bernstein @BMBernstein
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
From the history of bearer instruments it couldnt be clearer that govt's will be hostile to cryptocurrencies. Bearer bonds were prohibited in 2010, Liberty dollar, e-gold, etc.

When you add a token to a crypto-protocol, it transforms it from "interesting tech" to govt nemesis
People who don't understand this optimize for "features".

People who do seek to optimize for resilience and the cost to run a full node, because they recognize that we're flirting with the boundaries of the law (if not today, we will be)

investopedia.com/articles/bonds…
Decentralized file sharing protocols are a good comp. The ones that won (Bittorent) were actually harder to use

If you're investing for the long run it's pointless to invest in growing DAUs when they can be wiped out with the flick of a switch

medium.com/@jbackus/inves…
The crazy thing is people launching new tokens are either entirely deceiving themselves into believing this won't be an issue or just woefully unaware

Everybody is trying to create their own liberty dollar right now...

nytimes.com/2012/10/25/us/…
If Ethereum the network rips out ETH or implements full KYC / AML, it's a different story.

But I don't see how you can simultaneously be bullish on both Ethereum the "SC" platform and ETH the token
The same rationale sort of applies to bitcoin, except that I believe it's 100x more resilient

People investing in tokens are playing short term musical chairs while those in BTC are preparing for battle with the final boss
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Deficits will increase until there are negative ramifications. But that will be too late

People lose faith in the USD and the only recourse to weakness will be to jack rates up

In 2022 100% of our budget will already be going to existing liabilities

We cant afford higher rates
It’s easy to see this spiraling out of control

Other countries stop buying treasuries —> we jack up rates further -> our interest expenses increase and we need to issue more debt —> more people stop buying —> higher rates...etc
Given our existing liabilities — both entitlements + debt — we’re on a surefire path to massive tax hikes that all go to pay *existing* entitlements

This is a recipe for instability.

The working class is going to be funding the excesses of the last 50 years
Read 3 tweets
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Cramer in 2000, days before the collapse:

"throw out all of the matrices and formulas that existed before the Web....they can't make money for you anymore, and that is all that matters. If we use any of what Graham and Dodd teach us, we wouldn't have a dime under management.”
This is similar to "cryptonetwork valuation thinking

Null hypothesis should be that the status quo is unchanged: assets are worth discounted future cash flows

Errors with tech valuation weren't because of a lack of tools but bc of errors predicting cash flow and new biz models
The tacit assumption is that crypto has created an entirely new paradigm -- for both asset valuation and fundraising

But my base case assumption is that other than which ONE ASSET wins as the primary money, the only way others can accrue value will be through cash flow
Read 4 tweets
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i'm long web 3 if it means decentralizing trusted 3rd parties

but IMO every attempt on a b-chain is not close to what it'll ultimately look like

progress in crypto is just inertia --Iterating on existing b-chains just for innovations sake

nobody questioning the premise itself
what if the right model to create a censorship resistant web isn't on a blockchain with a native token?

most goals can be accomplished with existing software. Do people forget the whole p2p wave?

governance of OSS already exists and so do distributed protocols (DHTs, IPFS)
feels like people are wedded to the token model from a sunk cost fallacy, and all the investment $$ of web 3.0 is still going into very similar ideas

but my bet is that FB isn't going to be disrupted by a social network on a blockchain that ICOs....
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Gold: Back in the office for the first time since before Christmas, its time to look back on #gold's recent performance and what may lie ahead.

1/15
Gold: the recent strength in gold has been helped by some weakness in the US dollar.

But as this chart shows, #gold has run ahead of the weakening dollar.

2/15
Gold: plotting its performance in a number of currencies is another way of demonstrating that the dollar has not been the only factor lifting #gold.

3/15
Read 16 tweets
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1/ Bitcoin is a decentralized super-organism made of individually replaceable cells that share aligned incentives. Some of Bitcoin's best traits are simply copied from the Fungi Kingdom. Let's explore this...

Part 1: Mycelium

medium.com/@BrandonQuitte…

Thread 👇
2/ Bitcoin appears superficially simple at first glance, however true understanding is difficult. Observers are easily seduced into making hasty assumptions. Competing narratives make it even harder (digital gold, fintech revolution, etc).

@nic__carter
medium.com/@nic__carter/v…
3/ “What is bitcoin?” Like Fungi, bitcoin is a super-organism adapting to environmental stimuli, it unlocks stranded resources through PoW, absorbs proven competitor's advantages, and occupies a similar ecological role: the immune system.
Read 39 tweets
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Gold: It’s been a tough few months for #gold since the middle of the year, but the past three weeks have seen signs of a recovery.

1/10
Gold: And this recovery in #gold is even more pronounced in currencies other than the US dollar.

2/10
Gold: This makes it an unusual rally in gold, as it is moving in the opposite direction to the US dollar - mind another gap, perhaps.

3/10
Read 11 tweets
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Gold: Tomorrow marks the 10-year anniversary of the failure of Lehman Brothers and, consequently, economists, market commentators and journalists have been rolling out their thoughts on both the financial crisis and the subsequent decade.

1/14
Gold: How did #gold fare through the crisis? This chart, from July 2008 to July 2009, shows no sign of gold moving rapidly higher? In fact, gold fell in the fourth quarter of 2008 as the dollar strengthened and gold was used as a source of liquidity (and sold.)

2/14
Gold: Although in the first half of 2009 #gold was comfortably above the level it was when Lehman failed…

3/14
Read 16 tweets
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#History/#Art thread – From my recent trip to Madurai/Tirunelveli. On Jain sites (some with a rich history dating back to at least the 3rd cent. BCE), early Pandyan rock-cut cave temples (7th-8th cent. CE) & the amazing Vettuvan koil.

Pic: Mahavira (~8 cent CE), Kizhakuyilkudi
Before I start on the places, the history around all this is fascinating & splits opinion. Is it apt to call the script Tamili/Tamil Brahmi? Did it develop independently in the Tamil country/come with the Jain monks from the north? Were 8,000 Jains actually impaled in Madurai?>
>Were the Saivites overaggressive in promoting their faith? Shall only be happy to discuss on these separately (unless it gets too long/irrational). And I’m not posting every inscription from the places here, despite their importance. Again, shall be happy to discuss them.
Read 40 tweets
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Gold: Its likely to be quiet today, with the US markets closed for the Labor Day public holiday. But the CFTC released its Commitment of Traders Report on Friday, as usual. To summarise, speculators were still (just) net short #gold as of 28 August. 1/6
Gold: The Managed Money category also remains net short #gold, although as in the case of the legacy report net speculative position, the net Managed Money short decreased slightly last week. 2/6
Gold: There was not much change to the Managed Money gross long #gold positions, which were steady around 11.4 million ounces. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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