Profile picture
Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj
, 12 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
First Sunday of BiH’s 2018 elxn campaign. Some projection/analysis/questions re: the world’s most complex constitutional regime w notoriously shoddy local polling data. 1/n
Some big Qs:

- Komsic & Covic have never directly faced off. Can Komsic still muster large % of reformist Bosnian Croats (vs Covic’s Herz. base) + reformist Bosniaks to defeat HDZ’s iron grip on (shrinking) conservative/nationalist Croat electorate?
- Relatedly, who will win the reformist/anti-nationalist vote in the BiH presidency? Komsic (Croat) or Becirovic (Bosniak)? Difficult to see both winning, while dual defeat is a distinct, even likely possibility?
- Does the inanely divided Bosnian left have any credible parliamentary hopes? It seems highly questionable but even small improvement over 2014 results could make important difference.
- Has the string of SDA defections genuinely hurt the party? Dzaferovic is arguably their worst presidential candidate ever but what of their prospects in the parliament? The SDA machine remains a force, so too the HDZ & SNSD. Always the favorites in practice.
- Is this the SBB’s year to shine? Or will they be edged out by the SDP’s baby faced Bacirovic even with a dour SDA candidate? How much of an actual party is there beyond Radoncic & can they translate his prospects to the parliament also?
- Just how unpopular have Dodik & SNSD become after 12 yrs in power, tanking econ prospects & growing anti-regime protests? How overtly will they cheat/sabotage the polls? Or is their patrimonial control such that the elxns are already in the bag? An open but critical Q.
- W Dodik running for the state presidency & Cvijanovic a proven elxn loser could we see Dodik win the BiH presidency but SNSD lose the RS prez and/or even RS assembly? A split in their result seems likely, as in 2014, w Cvijanovic arguably the weakest link.
- If either/both HDZ & SNSD are convinced of/unhappy w prospects/outcomes of elxn will they resort to violence/sabotage? Gruevski style politics in BiH mean complete chaos, w major spillover effects on the whole region. Easily hijacked by malign foreign powers like RUS.
- Will there be any possibility for an actual post-elxn govt formation or are we in for a repeat of the post-2010 impasse? If it’s the latter, a strong showing by HDZ & SNSD greatly increases odds of major post-Oct political crisis.
- Re: presidency, worst case outcome: Dodik-Covic-Radoncic. Best case: Komsic-Becirovic-Ivanic. Plausible: Dodik-Covic-Becirovic. In reality, not much difference btw worst case & plausible scenario, w key Q being the situation at the legislative & at state & entity level.
- Overall, still expecting these to be deeply irregular polls, the worst since 1996, w exceedingly high chance of fraud & violence. Coherent, rapid response by EU & US in event of major shenanigans is imperative but also unlikely. Turbulence almost certainly ahead. /xxx
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Jasmin Mujanović
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!