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Simon Wardley @swardley
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
X : What do you think of the current brexit strategy?
Me : I'm guessing it's run by lawyers, economists and politicians supported by management consultants.
X : You didn't really answer the question.
Me : That's because I'm not aware of any strategy being used in brexit.
... I would be very surprised if DxEU or EC has any real grasp on the landscape, nor where it is heading, nor even the key components. Ask a simple question i.e. name the top 100 critical companies in the process. I doubt either side understands that ...
... so it's more a negotiation play i.e. get what we think is important, give the other side little in return. Whether what is given or gotten is actually important is something we will find out later.
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More from @swardley see all

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The most popular option every time - backed on average by just over a quarter - has been to leave without a deal at all - bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… ... well, I'd prefer GE followed by Corbyn + Brexit (preferably WTO but EEA docked to EFTA is fine) but that's a bit specialised.
... what I do find amazing is that "no deal" still tops the options after years of continuous campaigning both online and offline to overturn the referendum against no effective opposition. That is fairly spectacular, almost unprecedented.
But as always, do remember these are polls and not reality. Lest we forget 23/Jun/16 ...
Populus had Remain 10% ahead
ComRes had Remain 6%+
YouGov had Remain 4%+
Ipsos Mori had Remain 4%+
... One of the few dissenting voices was Opinium, who produced that recent poll.
Read 3 tweets
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X : Who created Wardley Maps?
Me : Err ... the clue is in the name?
X : Are they new?
Me : In terms of historical scales - yes. It's only 14 years old.
X : Why haven't I heard of them before?
Me : Because the world is large and techniques take time to diffuse?
X : Could you create me a map of my organisation?
Me : I could but it wouldn't help you.
X : Why?
Me : Because you wouldn't know what to do with it. You really need to learn to map for yourself.
X : How do I do that?
Me : Start here - medium.com/wardleymaps - just add practice.
X : How long will it take?
Me : To become really good at mapping, for it to become natural .. many years.
X : I don't have the time, how do I speed it up?
Me : Well, you could decide to actually start and use it i.e. practice. There is no shortcut for practice.
Read 7 tweets
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+1 -> "our ancestor chiefs understood bows, horses, and agriculture, our contemporary chiefs (and those in the media responsible for scrutiny) generally do not understand their equivalents, and are often less experienced in managing complex organisations than their predecessors"
+100 -> "We do not have a problem with ‘too much cynicism’ - we
have a problem with too much trust in people and institutions that are not fit to control so much."
+∞ -> "Most politicians, officials, and advisers operate with fragments of philosophy, little knowledge of maths or science and little experience in well-managed complex organisations."
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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1) thread
Dear @andrew_lilico
Please, give it up, you, like all #brexit figures, got it catastrophically wrong

I don't want to kick a man when he's down but honestly, surely it's time for some quiet reflection?

Brexiters, like yourself, failed. There is no-one else to blame
@andrew_lilico 2) the strange thing is, you still seem to be suffering from the same delusion that you had 2 years ago when you wrote this Blog, that either
a) the UK has the upper hand in #Brexit negotiations or
b) the UK can act as if it does and the EU will cave
reaction.life/seven-key-brit…
@andrew_lilico 3) so yes, you're technically right, the UK doesn't need a Withdrawal agreement but the UK *does* want a trade deal, every Brexit MP admits that, and the EU made a future trade deal conditional on that WA

So, we're getting a WA

Read 11 tweets
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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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1) "Parliament follows" - a #Brexit story
Been engaged in a long thread with @0Calamity and others with the common Corbynite theme:
"But what can Corbyn do? He's not in power"
For a "popular movement" there seems to be a lack of awareness of how they work.
So, what *can* he do?
2) well firstly we need to recognize two fairly obvious things.
a) unfortunately, 80% of our current MPs are, well, sheep. They follow, especially public opinion, they don't lead
b) the prerequisite for stopping Brexit is public opinion. This *must* be shifted or it won't stick
3) this is when Corbynistas chime in & say "look at the polls,enough people haven't shifted, if Corbyn opposed Brexit it would be political suicide"

Putting to one side the "party before country" bias which is obvious to any non Labour supporter, isn't this what Labour is about?
Read 11 tweets
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I am now reading Policy Exchange's report on the Irish border... because my students are doing exams and they are miserable so I want to be miserable too out of solidarity with them. #Brexit
policyexchange.org.uk/publication/ge…
I suppose this GIF is me using the threat of a return to violence as a political tool. I am a disgrace. #Brexit
How many times does it have to be said? Ireland is not threatening to use its veto because Ireland doesn't have to use its veto. Ireland IS the EU; the EU is Ireland. The UK's entire #Brexit strategy seems to miss this fundamental point time and time again.
Read 19 tweets
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I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets

Trending hashtags

#FBPE #codomain #brexit #Brexit #TIL #PeoplesVote #border #EEA #awkward #GFA #EU27 #meddling #CISOSkills #Labour #Visions4Change #CISO #Manel #StopBrexit #EFTA #blockchain #BrexitDeal #1nt #TrumpUKvisit #today #CloudIsSoPassé

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