Thread by @TheLastRefuge2

1. This might be unpopular, but I'm not convinced President Trump is likely to declassify the Carter Page FISA application for multiple reasons.

2. Reason #1 is the request is not from an official agency, DoD/Intelligence entity, or legislative committee with oversight. The request is from a group of representatives.

3. Prior executive declassification request came from official and authorized oversight. Most recent was Nunes Memo which was for HPSCI and requested by Chair of Gang of Eight oversight (Devin Nunes) w/ approval from SoH (Ryan).

4. Zeldin, Meadows, Jordan, Gohmert et al, are a great group -all terrific and righteous- but do not represent an oversight committee with jurisdiction. [It's also weird how Goodlatte (Judicary), and/or Nunes (HPSCI) never made the request official from their committee.] 🤔

5. Reason #2) is that within the executive branch, President Trump has a conflict inside the declassification. He would be declassifying material subject to his own personal interests.

6. I think *the conflict* is the argument White House lawyers are using to try and dissuade President Trump from ordering his cabinet into compliance.

7. Under 'non-conflicted' *NORMAL* declassification around this issue: congress (legislative branch) would be requesting the FBI and DOJ (executive branch)to declassify. And the AG and FBI Director would be seeking approval from President [and all other IC agencies of interest]

8. However, in the current FUBAR; it is against the institutional interests of the DOJ and FBI (executive) to comply with congress (legislative), and thus they have not requested Presidential approval.

9. The DOJ and FBI have isolated the Office of the President, and forced the chief executive (POTUS) to take an overriding action. Part of his own cabinet is leaving Trump legally vulnerable.

10. That's why it seems bizarre to me when people say things like "trust some oddly dimensional magnanimous plan". Trust *what* plan? The plan of the DOJ and FBI to expose the office of the president to legal challenge? Gee, some plan.... It seems more like bait to me.

11. I get what Mark Meadows (and his congressional team) is trying to do. He's trying to provide the White House with an excuse (outside of self interest) for declassification; by leaking messages showing corruption within the FISA construct.

12. By using the controlled Strzok/Page leaks to 'friendly' media, Rep Meadows et al (legislative branch) are seeding the landscape to expose the fraud within the FISA application.

13. This approach could provide enough reasonable validity for the declassification under Section 1.7 of Executive Order 13526 (governing classifications).

archives.gov/isoo/policy-do…

14. Thereby removing some of the legal issues from a unilateral declassification decision by the office of the President.

15. At least that's what it looks like they are trying to do.

16. It's a really weird scenario because in this specific instance the executive branch contains both those who are framing the president (DOJ/FBI), and the president himself (WH).

17. What is in the personal, legal and perhaps constitutional interests of the office of the President, is against the interests of his own executive law enforcement agencies (DOJ/FBI). And layered with massive amounts of politics. Really a screwy situation.

18. As we saw from earlier responses from the FISA Court Presiding Judge Collyer; the judicial branch is not willing to engage with the issue - and the FISC directed the legislative branch to work out a remedy with the executive branch. FUBAR.

19. That's why I'm not certain if President Trump will declassify the material.

/END

20. post script: Forgot to mention - as I shared with @themarketswork considering SCOTUS Kavanaugh is on the precipice of a sure confirmation, I'm not convinced this is a good time to open a constitutional issue/question surrounding executive authority.