Everything you know about Brexit is wrong.
A contrarian thread inspried by David Allen Green. (1/x)
A contrarian thread inspried by David Allen Green. (1/x)
Proposition 1: The default position is a No Deal Brexit
While this may be technically true, in reality for the UK to leave the EU with no deal would require a political earthquake to occur. (2/x)
While this may be technically true, in reality for the UK to leave the EU with no deal would require a political earthquake to occur. (2/x)
Parliament voting down the withdrawal agreement wouldn’t be sufficient. A No Deal exit would require an active decision by the UK PM and the European Council not to extend A50 while in the midst of extreme real world consequences. (3/x)
Proposition 2: The decision to leave has already been taken
Despite notification of our intention to leave being given, that notification can be revoked at any time prior to the Withdrawal Agreement being ratified. (4/x)
Despite notification of our intention to leave being given, that notification can be revoked at any time prior to the Withdrawal Agreement being ratified. (4/x)
In practice, the most important political decisions still lie ahead. Once we have a final Withdrawal Agreement we can either ratify it, leave with no deal, revoke notification and remain in the EU, or (subject to approval by the EU27) seek an extension. (5/x)
Proposition 3: The government is preparing for a No Deal exit
In fact the government is just threatening a No Deal exit as a tool to manage domestic UK politics. (6/x)
In fact the government is just threatening a No Deal exit as a tool to manage domestic UK politics. (6/x)
By keeping No Deal on the table, the government gives the Brexit purists something to rally around that exposes the weakness of their position and forces them into defending terrible short-term consequences on the basis that it will be worth it in the end. (7/x)
Once we have a Withdrawal Agreement, the utiliy of the No Deal threat will disappear and we will be left with a binary decision to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement or to revoke Article 50. (8/x)
The key question is who should make the final decision about whether to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement or to revoke Article 50. Such a binary question lends itself to a referendum - will the government and parliament see the logic of offering a #PeoplesVote? (9/9)
