Thread by @syrian_law

HERE IS THE SYRIAN WAR IN A NUTSHELL DATING BACK FROM 2011 UNTIL THE PRESENT DAY (PART 1):

The security situation in Syria began to gradually deteriorate before it became a major issue in September 2011 with the first Battle of Rastan in Homs province.

Attacks around Damascus began to intensify in November 2011 before the first terrorist attacks hit the capital on December 23, 2011. One month later, the Al-Qaeda linked Jabhat Al-Nusra terrorist group announced its formation on January 23rd.

The first Ghouta campaign to clear rebels out of the suburbs of Damascus was launched on January 29th and military operations intensified in the city of Homs in the district of Baba Amr in February 2012.

Armed groups took over parts of the city. Defections from the government steadily increased during 2012 & culminated in the low point of the conflict when the cities of Damascus & Aleppo were attacked in the summer of 2012 & four major generals were assassinated on July 18th.

Another major attack occurred in September when the Armed Forces General Command Headquarters in Damascus was attacked. Even though the city of Damascus was secured overall, the security situation around the capital deteriorated in the latter half of 2012.

Moreover, the eastern part of Aleppo stayed out of government control for the next four years. During the summer of 2012, Syrian forces withdrew from the northeast and Kurdish forces filled the security void.

In October 2012, news of Hizbullah's involvement in the Syrian conflict alluded to reinforcements backing up the Syrian Army from its allies.

November 2012 witnessed armed groups taking over positions in northern and eastern Syria, such as in the provinces of Aleppo and Deir Ez-Zor, and intensifying their attacks around Damascus and its airport.

While it may have looked like victory for the Syrian government was not guaranteed by the end of 2012, foreign powers began recognizing in January 2013 that the Syrian government was not going to fall after almost two years of unrest.

However, in March 2013, the city of Raqqa fell and armed groups continued seizing territory in places such as the provinces of Aleppo and Daraa.

However, the long-awaited counteroffensive by the Syrian Army was launched on April 7, 2013 to seize back territories in northern and southern Syria.

Almost immediately following the counteroffensive, the West began accusing Syria of carrying out chemical attacks & using it as a public excuse to continue supplying weapons to armed groups. Such pattern of behavior by the West continued each time the Syrian Army had upper hand.

The Syrian Army launched its offensive to recapture the entire city of Homs in June 2013. With the Syrian Army turning the tide of the war, the news spread of a chemical attack in eastern Ghouta & Western powers began scrambling to bomb Syria even though no such evidence existed.

With little public appetite for direct military action, US backed down in September 2013. The armed groups & their foreign sponsors were betting on direct US intervention but when that didn't happen, it became clear that the armed groups didn't have a chance of winning the war.

On October 8, 2013, Syrian Prime Minister Wael Halqi even declared that reconstruction had begun and Syrian industrialists should return home.

The Syrian Army was now clearly winning the war as the Qalamoun offensive began later that year and the entire city of Homs was won the following year.

Western powers and their allies were unhappy with this trajectory and in the summer of 2014, ISIS suddenly won huge swathes of territories in Syria and Iraq.

The US now had an excuse to directly enter the Syrian conflict under the guise of fighting ISIS but in reality to occupy Syrian territory won from ISIS to use as leverage.

The US campaign thus began in September 2014. Despite this, the Syrian government's counteroffensive continued in 2014 and by March 15, 2015, US Secretary of State John Kerry was admitting that the West had to engage with President Bashar Al-Assad to end the war.

The new Saudi King Salman was unimpressed by this direction and set aside his differences with Qatar and Turkey to ally their proxies in Syria to fight the Syrian government. They poured cash and increased their weapons shipments to the armed groups during 2015.

Engaged in four years of war and no doubt suffering from some fatigue, the Syrian Army's counteroffensive slowed in 2015 as the city of Idlib and Palmyra were lost.

To help the Syrian Army resume its counteroffensive, Russia intervened in the conflict at the invitation of the Syrian government in September 2015.

The Syrian Army began winning back territory in western Syria during late 2015 and 2016 and it culminated in a victory in Aleppo by the end of 2016.

The Battle of Aleppo confirmed that the Syrian government was heading for victory in western Syria so the US and its allies shifted its attention to the eastern part of the country.

In eastern Syria, the success of Kurdish forces in fighting ISIS led Turkey to directly intervene in the conflict in the summer of 2016 to thwart their ambitions.

TO BE CONTINUED...