Publicly abandoning Kavanaugh is the break glass scenario. Before that, there'll be an effort to get him to withdraw on his own. This is far preferable for Senate Republicans & maybe for Kavanaugh himself. The big wild card is Trump.
Here's what that effort could look like...
Here's what that effort could look like...
The GOP senators who are considering voting against Kavanaugh are likely talking to each other. It's a "hold hands" situation, like when Collins-Murkowski-McCain opposed ACA repeal. Collins & Murkowski likely move together - splitting pits them against each other.
The nay bloc makes clear to McConnell that he doesn't have the votes and in the same breath, promise to vote for whoever is the next nom. McConnell then tells the WH he doesn't have the votes, urges them to get Kavanaugh to withdraw and get a new nominee on track ASAP.
This will happen because (bummer alert) Republicans still have time to fill the seat if Kavanaugh withdraws. Voting for him has become toxic & their ultimate goal isn't to confirm K, it's to fill the seat. And they all know it's possible to fill the seat without the toxic vote.
Here's the rub: only the WH can withdraw the nomination. All the Senate can do is return the nomination to the WH at the end of this Congress (1/3/19). McConnell can hold a losing vote, but even that doesn't withdraw the nomination.
So that's where Trump comes in.
So that's where Trump comes in.
If McConnell doesn't have the votes he almost certainly will not hold a vote. A failed vote is a terrible vote for his members. The only scenario in which he does is if he has to prove to the WH that doesn't have the votes, to get them to withdraw his nomination & move on.
The big question is whether Trump sees Kavanaugh as a proxy for himself and on that basis, refuses to withdraw his nomination. In that scenario, you might see the kind of stalemate that would prompt McConnell to hold a failed vote. Unlikely for sure - but who the hell knows.
And there's the question of Kavanaugh's mentality. He's a man who likes to roll the dice - literally. Does he decide it's SCOTUS or bust? If he testifies under oath, seems like he has a 5% chance of getting confirmed & a 95% chance of getting disbarred. Maybe he likes those odds.
In sum, @NateSilver538 is 100% right that the best case for Rs is for Kavanaugh to withdraw on his own. They can wash their hands, say it's not their fault & move to confirm his replacement ASAP. But there's a lot that has to happen between here & there.
