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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Voter enthusiasm/engagement is very high in the new Pew poll, with 61% of voters saying they're more enthusiastic than usual to vote in the midterms. This question is usually a pretty good predictor of overall national turnout. pewrsr.ch/2ONPD0q
Note, however, that GOP historically quite high by midterm standards -- it's just that Democratic enthusiasm is totally off the charts.
A pretty good #take is that with base turnout already expected to be quite high, the parties should spend the final 6 weeks of the campaign appealing to swing voters instead.
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Also, a lot of primary campaigns don't feature major differences among the candidates on policy. Clinton and Obama had very little to divide them in 2008, for example.
Elections are mostly *not* about wonky arguments over policy. Or to put it another way, you could have exhaustive coverage of the candidates' policy positions and still have plenty of time left over for the horse-racier aspects of the campaign.
So while I'm a huge fan of some of the people making this critique (e.g. @jayrosen_nyu and @Sulliview), I find "cover elections thru policy, not the horse race" to be a bit of a red herring. The argument should really be about whether there's too much *election* coverage, period.
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Not sure this is a fight worth getting into but FWIW, as someone who knows a relatively large amount about New York restaurants, this claim—that the restaurant where AOC worked was put out of business by a minimum wage hike—is dubious at best.
The restaurant, Coffee Shop, was closed mostly it occupied a lot of square footage and because rents are very high in Union Square, where it's located. A ton of restaurants in that area, including the iconic Union Square Cafe, have recently closed or relocated.
The owner did cite the minimum wage as one of a "combination of factors", but also said most of his employees were already making above the NYC minimum wage. Also, the concept was pretty dated, and the restaurant was poorly reviewed on Yelp, etc. fxn.ws/2F8ds1T
Read 4 tweets
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My basic view on Warren's chances is bearish. For whatever reason (she's seen as old news? the DNA test? sexism/she reminds voters of Hillary?) her polling has been quite poor especially given her high name recognition. Her margins of victory in MA also have also not been great.
BUT you could make a decent "buy low" case on Warren. She probably has a better chance than Sanders of bridging the gap between the left and the party establishment. She's always raised a ton of money. Voters know what she stands for. Women did well in the 2018 primaries.
Not exactly the right analogy, but Warren's path to victory might be something like McCain's in 2008, who was left for dead by pundits at certain early points in the nomination process, but was fundamentally a strong candidate and eventually benefited from a "comeback" narrative.
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*New #Brexit poll*

"In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

Right 38% (-2)
Wrong 49% (+2)
Don't know 13% (+1)

That is an 11 point lead for "wrong", the largest lead on record

YouGov Dec 5
"Do you think Britain will be economically better or worse off after we leave the European Union, or will it make no difference?"

Better off 24%
Worse off 42%
No difference 19%

Net lead 18 points for "worse off", second highest on record

YouGov Dec 5 #Brexit
Important to recognise underlying polarisation:

90% Remainers say "wrong", 80% Leavers say "right"
70% of Labour voters say "wrong", 68% of Tories say "right"
Upper/middle-class break 56-34 for "wrong", working class 42-40 for "right"
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THREAD: I’ve spent the last few weeks chatting with people about the upcoming #midterm elections. I’d like to share some of what I’ve heard and why this gives me so much hope.🇺🇸
I met these young women while walking my pups in my beachside community. For privacy reasons, I won’t share their real names (let’s call them “Julie” and “Amy”), but they graciously allowed me to share their stories.
One the best parts of walking my “boys” (Bowen and Bynum) is that I get to meet lots of strangers. I mean, who can resist these two?😍

Seriously, the pups break the ice, and as a consequence, I’ve met lots of interesting people.
Read 27 tweets
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Some thoughts on the relationship between self-reported intensity and actual turnout, via this thread...
Self-reported intensity is correlated with actual turnout but the two are not the same.

People lie, lie, lie on likely voter screens. Not a majority, mind you, but enough to cast some doubt on them.
A good rule of thumb, if you're doing likelihood to vote on a 1-to-10 scale, is that something like 80% of your 10's will actually vote, and 50% of everyone else will actually vote. There's not a strong correlation between 1-9 ratings and voting, but there is with a 10.
Read 14 tweets
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This is a good article, talking about problems that we have to, that the GOP won't and that we CAN fix! But first, just #Vote damnit!
#SundayMotivation
The Myth of the Lazy Nonvoter
nyti.ms/2CvoRaT
2/"If history is any indicator, only around 40 percent of eligible voters will vote in the midterm elections. Most people assume that voter turnout remains this low because Americans are apathetic and simply don’t want to vote. But it’s more likely that most Americans do want to
3/"vote, and one of the root causes of low turnout is this country’s framework of restrictive voting laws. The United States is unique in allowing state laws to largely govern voting in federal elections. Ever since key federal protections were dismantled by the Supreme Court in
Read 41 tweets
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New Pew poll finds a substantial partisan gap in how Americans feel about Canada.

Democrats: 63% very warm, 11% somewhat warm, 16% neutral, 10% cold.
Republicans: 39% very warm, 20% somewhat warm, 26% neutral, 15% cold. pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018…
Pew doesn't have a 2016 data to compare this data to, but other polls have suggested that Republican views on Canada have gotten substantially more negative in the Trump era. There used to be an overwhelming pro-Canada U.S. consensus, now it's not that.
In February, Gallup found that 94% of Americans had a favourable view of Canada. The difference with Pew might be methodology or question wording -- and/or that Trump started regularly criticizing Canada and Trudeau in June. news.gallup.com/poll/228293/am…
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This November, millions of Americans’ access to health care is on the line. Each day from #100DaysOut to midterm elections, we’ll share the story of a Little Lobbyist who needs YOU to be a #HealthCareVoter for them. THREAD 0/100
#100DaysOut “Meet our kids and think of them when you vote. Our children deserve that.” @ElenaHung202 bsun.md/2LTlco6

This November, Xiomara's access to health care is #WhatsAtStake. She needs you to be a #HealthCareVoter. 1/100

bit.ly/2K3XYtQ
#100daysout Timmy would’ve lost his insurance in the NICU if he hadn’t been born just 6 days after the #ACA banned lifetime caps on care. bit.ly/2sAzoJV

Timmy's access to health care is #whatsatstake this November. Be a #HealthCareVoter. 2/100

bit.ly/2OrNcRt
Read 101 tweets

Trending hashtags

#PreExistingConditions #WrapUpSmear #DarkToLight #LawAndOrder #IDEA #VOTEVOTEVOTE #spin #WhoIsQ #OneNationUnderGod #RedWave #MFF #RUSchooled #womensrights #TogetherWeWin #ProtectOurCare #VOTE #impeach45 #MississippiRally #UniteBlue #PatriotMovement #MSM #MedicaidWaiver #MidtermElections2018 #Wisconsin #ThrowbackThursday

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