I've seen this asserted a lot by GOP operatives—that a Kavanaugh confirmation will increase GOP turnout—without it being backed by much evidence. But suppose one concedes it's true. It doesn't demonstrate that confirming him is a good idea, politically… politi.co/2IskjCd 
…the real question is whether it helps you by increasing GOP turnout more than it costs you by (i) also increasing Democratic turnout and (ii) alienating swing voters, who have lukewarm views toward Kavanaugh. If that's not a part of your analysis, it's not very good analysis.
Another question is whether confirmation increases turnout more than the alternatives (e.g. Kavanaugh martyrdom + a new conservative nominee like Barrett being chosen?).
Anyway, it's all complicated and semi-unpredictable. But the GOP operative view doesn't seem very rigorous.
Anyway, it's all complicated and semi-unpredictable. But the GOP operative view doesn't seem very rigorous.
