1/ Alts have been moving higher for over a month now vs Bitcoin
The majority of charts shared on twitter are setups, entries, or patterns. Exits and selling after original update are rarely discussed outside of "boom this moved 'x' %"
Should you take profit, or hodl for 2x?
The majority of charts shared on twitter are setups, entries, or patterns. Exits and selling after original update are rarely discussed outside of "boom this moved 'x' %"
Should you take profit, or hodl for 2x?
2/ The comments when I posted that alts have been going up for 30 days were mostly disbelief, yet it's verifiable.
You can use the altcoin index to see it, or look at 90% of alt charts.
You can use the altcoin index to see it, or look at 90% of alt charts.
3/ This has happened once before in the bear market: Second week of March to May there was a nice swing up. The pops on alts after that have been short lived, none longer than 2 weeks...until now.
*charting 1 coin here, but it is representative of majority of other alts*
*charting 1 coin here, but it is representative of majority of other alts*
4/ Almost all alt charts on Twitter look at entries. Breakouts, patterns, retests, or the *accumulation* bottomed out gem (crowd favorite)
This is one part of the trade - the entry, buying, taking the risk
With a blend of basic TA and common sense, you too can find an alt entry
This is one part of the trade - the entry, buying, taking the risk
With a blend of basic TA and common sense, you too can find an alt entry
5/ I think most people can handle this part - the entry. Is it a price, pattern, or setup that you think is attractive?
The second part, determining an exit, is the bigger (and less discussed) question.
The second part, determining an exit, is the bigger (and less discussed) question.
6/ I'll share my views/thoughts for deciding when to take alt profits using public alt trades in last 30 days and general alt market examples.
7/ Some numbers to consider when deciding how to manage trades:
> Majority of top 200 mkt cap coins (most traded/liquid) are up 20-50% in last 30 days. *obviously some outliers down slightly or up more than 50%*
> Biggest 1 day movers are typically 30-40%, and then retrace
> Majority of top 200 mkt cap coins (most traded/liquid) are up 20-50% in last 30 days. *obviously some outliers down slightly or up more than 50%*
> Biggest 1 day movers are typically 30-40%, and then retrace
8/ My view has been, and remains, that I want to take alt profits at the first high timeframe resistance (8hr or daily) with targets ranging from 20-50%. Until coins move past that - I will continue.
-> examples and charts below so you can decide for yourself...
-> examples and charts below so you can decide for yourself...
9/ The first coins to move when alts experience reversal of downtrend (however shortlived) are typically large caps.
Look at $ADA & $TRX since first pop. Hits resistance/target, still below 30 days later.
ada trade:
trx trade:
Look at $ADA & $TRX since first pop. Hits resistance/target, still below 30 days later.
ada trade:
trx trade:
10/ Now let's look at how mid cap trades have turned out, which moved shortly after large caps. They are showing same pattern.
$LOOM and $QKC trades shown at time of target/resistance and current price (lower).
loom:
qkc:
$LOOM and $QKC trades shown at time of target/resistance and current price (lower).
loom:
qkc:
11/ Even in a case where a coin is running past the first high timeframe resistance/target, so far they are retracing back to that level or lower shortly after.
This means in the outlier case it runs higher, the chance to buy back is given.
This means in the outlier case it runs higher, the chance to buy back is given.
13/ Given the uncertainty of $BTC next move, with about 50/50 expecting yearly lows (atleast) it adds to the notion it's not an entirely "risk-on" market yet. If bitcoin dumps alts could get hurt.
Correlations are still very high - alts moving in unison with Bitcoin.
Correlations are still very high - alts moving in unison with Bitcoin.
14/ If Bitcoin gives more certainty of a move up, or a few alts prove me wrong by moving past their first major daily resistance - THEN I would change my view.
This means hodling alt trades longer, looking for 2x gains, laughing at 20% plebs, and not getting in way of uptrend.
This means hodling alt trades longer, looking for 2x gains, laughing at 20% plebs, and not getting in way of uptrend.
15/ UNTIL that happens - my strategy/outlook remains the same: take profits at those daily high timeframe levels.
Why?
- Reducing risk if positive momentum stops
- If alts prove me wrong and keep running, almost always chance to get back in at same rate or lower
Why?
- Reducing risk if positive momentum stops
- If alts prove me wrong and keep running, almost always chance to get back in at same rate or lower
16/ What is the downside to this approach if I'm wrong?
-Could miss slight upside for a few/handful of first alt trades of a cycle
If alts start to prove it wrong, adjustment is very easy. Can simply hold remaining/new alt plays longer. Other than
-Could miss slight upside for a few/handful of first alt trades of a cycle
If alts start to prove it wrong, adjustment is very easy. Can simply hold remaining/new alt plays longer. Other than
17/ In reality everyone's strategy will differ based on constraints, risk tolerance, and market view. Different/conflicting approaches can work over different timeframes.
Based on my poll most havn't taken 1 profit. Comment any thoughts below!
Based on my poll most havn't taken 1 profit. Comment any thoughts below!
