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tony nog #FBPE @tony_nog
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1) Lots about #Brexit make me angry but this is right up there
These brexiter vandals (and the idiots who follow them) put the UK in a position where potentially *every single trading country in the world* has a veto on our future

Every single one

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri…
2) and every MP who voted through Article 50 (yes, Corbyn's MPs as well) did so knowing (presumably) that we either had to get a deal past 28 Vetoes, or, if we didn't, past 164

Every one has a say, any of 192 countries who had some historical axe to grind could block our future
3) this is not rocket science, this wasn't hidden. I wrote a blog 2 years ago saying we were facing 162 Vetoes after facing 27.

But it was all public, it took me a few hours to find this and I have no background in Trade at all

But MPs voted for Article 50 anyway
4) everything happening (or not happening) now goes back to starting that 2 year clock 18 months ago.
@thatginamiller fought a court case to give MPs on all sides the right to vote on A50...and MPs on all sides took the coward's way out
@thatginamiller 5) MPs (Labour & Tory) *must have known* the grave risk they took by knowing there was no plan for #Brexit, but voting for it anyway
If they knew, they're not fit to be MPs
If they didn't know, they're not fit to be MPs
End/
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More from @tony_nog see all

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1) 2 observations about David Davis comments here
1stly the really pathetic point about the no deal #Brexit leaders is that even they don't believe in no deal, its still basically the worst bluff in history, believing 27 nations will fold on a cakeism deal before we do
2) if you believe in "no deal" & WTO is "liberating" then why talk about using it as leverage to get that "better" #brexit deal?
It's the same, tired, "they need us more..." line with added idiocy (hint: if you're going to bluff, don't tell everyone)

3) secondly, why does Davis still get airtime? He's been utterly wrong on every single aspect of #Brexit.

He thought we could strike individual trade deals with Germany. He also promised "exact same benefits". He attended 4 hours of negotiations. In all honesty, he's an idiot
Read 3 tweets
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Thoughts on #uncivilwar #Brexit
1) I thought it was good on the whole. Lots of details not covered, focused a lot on Cummings & didn't cover the corruption in Vote Leave enough but at the end of the day it's a drama, not a documentary
2) there's a lot of stuff Brexit geeks like me would have like to have seen covered but as it was, there was a lot of material in there which they covered at breakneck speed.

Couple of things jumped out for me though
3) Firstly the mood at the end of the film captured I think the mood in the country now. There is no joy in #Brexit, no triumphant outpouring.

No one is getting what they want, and Leave supporters are blaming others for Brexit not working
Read 7 tweets
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1) You have a mortgage, several credit cards & a pay day loan so you go to the bank to restructure your finances

You can't get to an agreement & you can't afford the payments so you stop paying

But you still have the debt & now a busted credit score

This is no deal & the £39b
2) there's this idea that we save £39b if we #Brexit with no deal.
The obligation still exists, we've already agreed this. We're not "buying a deal" we're meeting commitments.
If we crash out & don't pay we're just sending a message, the UK is untrustworthy as well as incompetent
3) if you're the kind of person who thinks it's OK for the UK to walk away from a debt its already agreed to then you're probably the kind of person who doesn't pay his fair share of a meal, or gets his round in, or returns that borrowed drill

A bit of a shit basically
Read 3 tweets

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1. I'm not interested in listening to any wailing about how bad May's #Brexit deal is. It's the only deal on the table. EEA window is closed and MPs have cocked it up and no deal isa non-starter. Yes, the deal is crap but that's what you get when you rule out all the alternatives
2. Leavers don't get to complained because most of you complained bitterly about an orderly planned Brexit and few had the foresight to think about how to do it so that strategically we are in a better place. Instead you went with boneheaded absolutism.
3. I have no sympathy for remainers either who bled a torrent of anti-EEA propaganda into the debate that then became the mainstay of the Ultras arguments. Y'all poisoned the well. If you wailed about EEA then you don't get to complain now.
Read 8 tweets
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A little thread on MY personal Brexit "Dividend" 👇👇

I have been waiting patiently & with barely baited breath for someone.. anyone to provide a single benefit to me & mine of #Brexit..
The question has been asked of many MPs & talking heads on both sides of the debate…❓
1/
And…. Not a scrap, not a trace, not a single little whisper of how I, & people like me, will be “better off” due to UK leaving EU SM and CU.. 🤔

And I don’t just mean financially before anyone comes at me brandishing a hair shirt & self-flagellating.. 🔨🔨
2/
"Sovrinty"? It's just a word & will always be “relative”..…
Control of our own money, borders & laws?… we already had all that..👍
So, whilst I waited, I scraped my personal barrel and came up with a single little splinter of a #Brexit Bonanza …🤨

Drum Roll ..🥁🥁🥁
3/
Read 9 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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#brexit seems to be all about feeling over fact and this is especially true of the ReesMogg ERG faction of the Tory right.
I never bought the line that #brexit is about Democracy because most of the Tory right had zero enthusiasm for improving democracy in the UK few of them care about unelected house of lords the unfair FPTP electoral system or transparency on the contrary
Most of the Tory right are interested only in constitutional changes that suit them and if anything strive to be as little democratically accountable as possible.
Read 23 tweets
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1. Starting to think the chances of a deal are closer to zero. There isn't enough coherence between the media, politicians, parties and policy wonks. they are all too easily distracted by trivia and Westminster sideshows.

#Brexit thread
2. The facts are that the EU has turned down any cake and eat it proposal on regulation and divergence and I find it is wise to take them at their word when they say no cherrypicking.
3. Loosely, the proposal from May is to leverage the NI solution into a while UK solution - which the EU has already declined. If anyone in government or close to it was paying attention they would have told May that the proposal is a stillborn.
Read 19 tweets
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1. The outcome of #Brexit, assuming we can get as far as a withdrawal agreement without unleashing Ragnarok will depend on whether the UK is capable of absorbing a few basic facts. (thread)
2. Theresa May will have a stack of letters on her desk from most of the multinationals operating in the UK and they will all be saying much the same thing - they need continued participation in EU regulatory systems if they are to continue investing in the UK.
3. Upon which depends a number of secondary and tertiary industries where we'd be looking at shedding over a million jobs as a starter for ten. How May responds to this depends entirely on what sort of poison she's being fed by her closest advisers - and who is informing them.
Read 20 tweets

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