1/ Thread: I'll tell you why Brexit fits Corbyn's agenda:
Because without it he has no chance of implementing his revolution. I don't mean wealth distribution and the resurrection of public services. His revolution's aim is to prove capitalism and free trade doesn't work....
Because without it he has no chance of implementing his revolution. I don't mean wealth distribution and the resurrection of public services. His revolution's aim is to prove capitalism and free trade doesn't work....
2/ But how can he prove this? And how can he get into power? Proof is provided by a disaster. The great financial crash of 2008 was immense but not sufficient in itself.
3. It did however sow the seeds of populism throughout the developed world, with private liabilities being pushed into public hands, the tax payer lumbered with paying off the failed gambles of the banking system, interest rates were lowered to extreme levels.
4/ This had multiple effects all of which helped the populist cause - two examples:
5. 1. Zero or negative real interest rates polarised wealth (with asset prices - stocks, bonds, property) all reaching record highs as credit costs plummeted. But the poor who don't own assets didn't benefit.
6/
2. companies (especially in the UK) could grow by adding cheap labour rather than increase productivity with investment. This led to massive increases in part time, self employed and zero hours contracts, and ultimately the gig economy.
2. companies (especially in the UK) could grow by adding cheap labour rather than increase productivity with investment. This led to massive increases in part time, self employed and zero hours contracts, and ultimately the gig economy.
7/ Work is no longer a route out of poverty it's a way of ensuring poverty is chronic.
Britain is the only country which has had falling real wages but GDP growth since the great financial crash of 2008.
Britain is the only country which has had falling real wages but GDP growth since the great financial crash of 2008.
8/ This week's Guardian Politics podcast points out that populists such as Trump, the BNP and Corbyn Need Anger in their base to be sustained. The last thing they want is for "problems" to be solved.
9/ Solving problems faced by their base removes the rationale for supporting the populists. Trump doesn't want immigration as a threat to go away, just as the neo-cons needed Al Queda and the Taliban to sustain their illegal wars in Iraq and Afganhistan.
10/
Similarly Corbyn doesn't actually want poverty to go away. In fact he needs it to remain. It might even be better for it to increase quite a bit more. The angrier the base the more support he gets.
Similarly Corbyn doesn't actually want poverty to go away. In fact he needs it to remain. It might even be better for it to increase quite a bit more. The angrier the base the more support he gets.
11/ And what better way to increase poverty than by destroying the basis by which the UK trades with the outside world - by raising trade barriers, vastly reducing EEA immigration (a net benefit to the exchequer of £2300 per head).
12/ People like me have been angrily arguing with Corbyn supporters that Corbyn's agenda won't be implementable if we leave the EU: that the NHS will be sold off or depleted of funds, that entire industries (such as the car, financial, aero, pharma) industries will relocate,...
13/ ...that the tax take will be destroyed, that sterling will devalue further.
Why does this have no traction with Corbyn? Could it be it's because:
1. Since he is a populist, economic failure increases his base's anger, disenchantment, this increasing support for him
Why does this have no traction with Corbyn? Could it be it's because:
1. Since he is a populist, economic failure increases his base's anger, disenchantment, this increasing support for him
14/
2. The only way into power for a revolutionary is via crisis
3. He proves capitalism doesn't work by engineering the very edge case circumstances when it produces adverse outcomes for all but about 500 people (disaster capitalists).
2. The only way into power for a revolutionary is via crisis
3. He proves capitalism doesn't work by engineering the very edge case circumstances when it produces adverse outcomes for all but about 500 people (disaster capitalists).
15/ In fact Brexit is a unique opportunity for Corbyn.
16/ First past the post and the apparent demise of the liberal democrats, ensures that in most seats, England-domiciled anti-Tory,anti-Brexit voters have no other option but to vote Labour even if Corbyn repeatedly rubs salt into their wounds by claiming Brexit cannot be stopped.
17/
... When it can, obviously.
Brexit provides the crisis by which the revolutionary populist can rise to power. There's no other feasible circumstances for such a dim, inept leader to take power.
... When it can, obviously.
Brexit provides the crisis by which the revolutionary populist can rise to power. There's no other feasible circumstances for such a dim, inept leader to take power.
18/ Take Brexit away, take the remainer base away, take first past the post away, take economic damage away, and take the economic mismanagement of the past 10 years and the crisis leading up to it away,take any one of these away on its own,and Corbyn would be in the wilderness.
19/ Corbyn needs Brexit, it's his ticket to power, and he thinks he needs the economic damage that will result to sustain power. Not that this plan will work in practice. Hard to imagine Corbyn getting two terms.
/Ends
/Ends
