1/ A thread in which I show, once again, that either @InsideEVs is full of it or the immaculate quarter delivery numbers are a little too-good-to-be-true. And, once again, I owe @InsideEVs themselves a H/T because they published their own contradictions. $TSLA
2/ We begin with another breathless headline/pump from yesterday. Since I'm a sucker for punishment, and I'm keenly interested in actual Q3 registration data (not just what is claimed by $TSLA), I clicked the link. You can too: insideevs.com/tesla-californ… 
3/ In the article we find this helpful tidbit of information. California is usually around 50% of the total EV market. Historically for $TSLA this has always held roughly true. We also discover that the combined registrations for S/X/3 were 22,758 for the immaculate quarter. Hmmm
4/ I then clicked over to the @InsideEVs scorecard. A quick bit of math says $TSLA delivered a total 69,925 S/X/3 combined in Q3. I'm either 'only smartish' or 'quite smart and very mean', but either way I know that 22,758/69,925 = 32.5%. Seems light.
5/ So what's going on here? One possibility is $TSLA made a national push with the Model 3 beyond California. But I remember what @InsideEVs publishes, and who could forget this pumpity pump pump from late Q3? I didn't. It was a Bay Area bonanza!!
6/ Another, more likely possibility is that $TSLA delivered so many cars so late in the quarter that they couldn't get them registered in time. I've already charted the huge discrepancy between what $TSLA claims to have delivered in Q3 versus what IHS Markit says were registered.
7/ But I also remember the endless pumps from @InsideEVs about those amazing August Model 3 deliveries. So amazing that 'the naysayers will have to move the goalposts again'. $TSLA
8/ Let's have a closer look at those August sales claimed by @InsideEVs, shall we? Almost 40k total, and just over 32k Model 3s through August for the quarter. Interesting. $TSLA
9/ In California, dealers have 20 days to file for new vehicle registration. You can see the law for yourself here: dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/con…
10/ The IHS Markit published earlier and CA registration data published by @InsideEVs yesterday very strongly support the thesis that either Q3 deliveries were a little sus or were the result of a massive end-of-September push. $TSLA
11/ But you can't have a massive September push and believe the @InsideEVs estimates for July/August. Until @InsideEVs reveals their methodology, their numbers should be viewed with great suspicion. Are they just a house organ for Elon now? Treat their pronouncements accordingly.
