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Jonathan Lis @jonlis1
, 9 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Now everyone’s talking about fisheries and forming consensus about fact we should leave CFP, may I humbly recommend this report I co-wrote in June? bluemarinefoundation.com/wp-content/upl…

Short summary: fishing industry is totally screwed.

Long summary: (thread)
🐟 80% of UK fish are exported
🐟 Outside single market face massive non-tariff barriers, eg labelling
🐟 Under May’s deal fish are subject to EU checks- will literally rot at Calais
🐟 If we leave customs union as gov advertises, fish products all subject to rules of origin requirements, potentially crippling as so much of the fish comes from abroad
🐟 Experts suggest it will take 10-20 yrs to disentangle from CFP; 21 month transition ludicrously inadequate
🐟 Fishing autonomy is illusory. We’ll still be governed by UN Convention on Law of Sea which eg compels states to give other states access to surplus stocks
🐟 UK didn’t even claim sovereignty of 200 mile limit till after it joined EU, so hard to see what it could ‘take back’
🐟 May not be possible ever to reduce EU access to UK waters
🐟 Key objection is allocation of UK quota, but that’s a matter not for EU but UK government, which sold small fishing enterprises out for big vessels years ago- idea Tories are on side of ‘little guy’ is beyond risible
🐟 Any attempt to confiscate quota allocation would be illegal under property law and involve UK gov in years of litigation and expensive compensation
🐟 CFP currently governed by ‘relative stability’, which did arguably give fishers a raw deal. But alternative is ‘zonal attachment’ which puts us entirely at mercy of fish migration. Could make fishers even worse off if fish - which don’t respect borders - behave unexpectedly
🐟 14,000 EU citizens work in processing industry, a vital and often neglected part of sector. Unclear who will replace them or how this industry survives once free movement ends
TL;DR: we need permanent single market & customs union. PM can wax romantical about fisheries, but by ending free movement & leaving SM she is risking fishing industry & livelihoods- and leaving CFP will prob do no good at all.

As usual with Brexit, be careful what you wish for.
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