Thread by @Usherwood

Key points I sense I'm going to be raising this week:

1/

Firstly, the "Brexit deal" is only about a small part of "Brexit"

More specifically, it's about ending UK membership of the EU, not the future relationship

2/

For any version of negotiated leaving, that ending has to be resolved and there's no good reason to think the EU is willing to move on the substance

3/

Secondly, the default outcome of Art.50 is a no-deal Brexit.

It's only avoiding if the parties make an active decision otherwise

4/

That means if MPs vote down the WA, then it doesn't (by itself) "stop Brexit": it requires a replacement agreement (agreed by all parties) to avert the no-deal outcome

5/

Thirdly, Parliament is sovereign, but that doesn't mean it gets what it wants.

In this case, it could end up instructing government to renegotiate, but there is no way it can force the EU to accept that

6/

Hence, any renegotiation scenario will have to have an implicit or explicit fall-back position (a 'backstop', if you will) should gvt fail to secure what it is instructed to do

7/

Finally, don't assume that whatever the outcome of the ratification is that it automatically is the 'best' outcome, either relatively or absolutely speaking

8/

'best' is a construct, that all sides will be using to serve their agenda.

A lot of people are going to be doing a lot of selling in the coming fortnight, so be forewarned

9/

In sum, all stuff you know that you know, but might forget in the heat of it all

/end