My guess: He's not reckless, and he isn't stupid enough to think a pardon will save him.
So why can't he tell the truth?
I think it's helpful to remember a few things about the nature of the criminal enterprise.
In a 1-27-2011 lecture—given while Mueller was FBI director—he talked about a new kind of organized crime threatening the US.
Today’s mobsters have gone international.
archives.fbi.gov/archives/news/…
And they pose a signifiant security threat.
They're also cornering the international market on natural gas & oil (which explains climate change denial).
Motivated by greed, they sell to the highest bidder and will stop at nothing to make money.
Mogilevich’s operative David Bogatin bought 5 condos in Trump Tower for $6 million cash. 1,300 Trump-branded condos were sold in all cash purchases to anonymous shell companies.
justsecurity.org/60528/understa…
Russian oligarchs, don't forget, are Manafort's buddies and clients.
From Manafort's guilty plea:
lawfareblog.com/document-super…
Kilimnik is another Russian oligarch. Manafort's buddy.
But Mueller is confident Manafort is lying, which means Mueller knows the truth.