1/ If HMG do decide to go down the Norway route, the EU might try to shunt us into a 'UK' version of the EEA and associate membership of EFTA. This is to be strongly resisted. 
2/ the way the EU would pitch it to the UK is by trying to pitch it as a bespoke British option (to appeal to our pride) but they know full well that bespoke options are available inside efta frameworks - Norway and Liechtenstein have different arrangements for example.
3/ the way they would pitch it to the present efta states is that by cordoning the UK off in its own silo, they would be safeguarding them against any future EU-UK disputes that could harm their trade.
4/ the real reason for the EU to press for this would be simple - by isolating the UK you reduce both their and the present efta countries' 'collective bargaining' position.
5/ This might sound reasonable at first but would the EU ever agree the same thing? If the EU ever wanted something they wouldn't negotiate as five members or even 20 members - they would use the collective bargaining power of the EU 27 to back up requests.
6/ while a possible efta5 would still be smaller in terms of GDP and population than the eu27, we would be some of their biggest trading partners (collectively we would be their BIGGEST trading partner) containing two of Europes biggest financial centres.
7/ so if we were negotiating this, we would say - we want efta/EEA not 'Norway manqué'; not 'Ersatz EFTA'. The only special thing we want is an additional customs partnership agreement (not CU) as envisaged in the Political Declaration
8/ if the EU refuses us a deal based on decades of existing precedent, then they have shown that they are no longer acting fairly but instead acting in a vindictive manner. /End. P.S. remind them of Lisbon Article 8!
