SHORT THREAD: 1992 was one of the more complicated elections of all-time—and one where "fundamentals" models based on the economy etc. do poorly. They didn't necessarily have Bush as a huge favorite but have trouble explaining why he lost by so much and became so unpopular.
There are A LOT of confounding factors in 1992. The GOP had held the White House for 3 terms. Perot. Economy was in recovery from the 1990-91 recession—but statistics were slow to recognize it (end of the recession was not declared until Dec. 92). Clinton was a good politician.
That said, 1992 was maybe the era of Peak Media Narrative, where White House coverage was getting more "sophisticated" (not meant as a compliment) and narrative-driven but there wasn't yet competition from blogs/Fox/MSNBC/social media/etc. to push back against the groupthink.
So it's a year when the media narrative on Bush—as being out of touch (see below re: the largely bullshit story about Bush and a supermarket scanner), as being a "wimp"—may actually have mattered. He went from very popular to very unpopular REALLY fast.
