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Private Investment Brief @ThePIBnyc
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Do you guys remember when Berkshire Hathaway nearly put fresh equity capital into Coty in order to help finance Coty's acquisition of Avon Products? I dare say that would have been a mistake all around. Not even the Oracle could have foreseen the rise of Kylie Jenner and the...
...new generation of upstart cosmetics brands: wsj.com/articles/celeb…
I must say it makes me feel old to learn that Anastasia Beverly Hills, a brand that owes much of its success to Instagram, now earns more than the one-time oligopolist Revlon.
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I've always had a vague and idle suspicion that the "real" reason Berkshire Hathaway never repurchased its own stock during the company's 1965-1998 "glory years" was that Buffett thought he could do better retaining and investing Berkshire's cash. In other words, while...
...Berkshire's stock may have been undervalued, Buffett believed other things were more undervalued. Now that Berkshire is buying back stock, we can infer that he no longer believes that. But is it also possible to calculate an indifference point? In other words, what expected...
...return-on-cash assumption would make Buffett indifferent between buying back stock and keeping the cash to invest? Incidentally, I've always thought the subject of Buffett's expected return on Berkshire's cash—which I'm pretty sure was an actual number, used to help...
Read 4 tweets
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Time for a speculative hypothesis......I wrestle with my background as a Buffett-worshipping value investor on the one hand, and the seductions of the "neo-value investing" movement on the other. By "neo-value investing" I mean the attempt to invest in modern tech companies...
...using the theology and logic of Buffett value investing. "2004-vintage Amazon is very young, and not profitable on a GAAP basis, but it's growing like crazy and building an enormous moat so it's actually a value investment" is probably the iconic neo-value investing example.
Some days I wake up thinking it's impossible (even for Buffett himself) to be a true Buffett acolyte and a tech investor at the same time—the sector is just too uncertain and if value investing is about anything, it's about certainty. But then some days I wake up thinking it...
Read 17 tweets
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As a rule, when a newspaper article starts with "A difficult debate is raging in the halls of Company X..." and two sentences later the "debate" turns out to be a dumb thing to be fighting about, then usually something else is going on. As marriage counselors, know, fights are...
...never really about what they're supposed to be about. That's what seems to be going on at Netflix. Officially, they're debating internally whether to "trust the algorithm" or override it in order to keep Jane Fonda et. al. happy: wsj.com/articles/at-ne…
But arguments like that are not actually that hard to resolve. The objective correlative isn't there, to use a showbiz term. This leads me to believe that Fondagate is a proxy war for some deeper internal turmoil within Netflix. I'm not sure what exactly that turmoil consists...
Read 12 tweets

Related threads

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1/
VOL CONTROL/VOL TARGETING

What that got to do with the markets right now?

Well, inverted $VIX has been lagging the #equity index’s and that is a big deal. The reason it is a big deal is because the of VOL TARGETING
2/
Volatility targeting/control strategies aim to control risk by BUYING $VIX as $SPX drops and liquidating $SPX as $VIX rises.

When $SPX makes new lows but $VIX does not the implication is these insurance products continue to buy #ES_F futures while sell $VIX
3/

So what so we have here? We have an entire sector that has built a model where a divergent $VIX = increased $SPX buying via #ES_F futures.

This strategy is roughly $1 tillion in notional and like $SKEW is showing, hopelessly underhedged vs a downside break
Read 10 tweets
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#Help Personally #Verified
I met Shyla last year in a meeting. Her father had dreamt of making her a doctor. But his dreams drowned in the sewer he had died in. This is her story. (ruralindiaonline.org/articles/my-mo…)
Ten years later, Shyla is almost close to realising her father’s dream. She is doing her nursing course, and she needs help. As a society that sent her father down the sewers, I think it is our responsibility to see that she becomes a nurse.
When I met her again last month, Shyla was exuding confidence. “I will soon be a nurse and if you need anything, call me over” she told me and i cant wait.
Shyla’s course fee for third year comes close to Rs 1 lakh. I already have someone pledging Rs 10,000.
Read 4 tweets
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Remember NYT = FAKE NEWS
This may have been what they were told as a follow-up to the anonymous op-ed that they published a few weeks ago. This is simply a wind-up article that has NO VALUE.
Let me correct myself, NO 'NEWS' value. It will certainly be valuable from the standpoint to winding up the dimms to say more stupid crap.
And since I think that we 'planted' the anonymous op-ed to stir the pot, I also think that this story was 'planted' in order to help move the needle on the patriotism of RR in the minds of the people. Time will tell.
Read 11 tweets
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This post, please, please read. This is what critical self-reflection and acting with intention and humility re: issues of #equity and racism can look like. Some highlights in this thread (but please read the whole thing) 👇🏾

@SchleiderJustin TY for your words & honesty. /1
"My children will be surrounded almost entirely by kids and adults who look and act like them. They will be educated during their most formidable years in a way that normalizes whiteness. Makes it the default.This will cause them irreparable harm." -@SchleiderJustin /2
"Yes, being raised in an all-white environment harms white people. We shut ourselves off from the humanity of others because we are not in the position of connecting with people who don’t look and act like us. This harms our souls." -@SchleiderJustin /3
Read 6 tweets
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Berkshire Hathaway owns dozens of daily and weekly newspapers, and Warren Buffett has said he underestimated how quickly they would decline.

Now Berkshire is outsourcing management of those papers to Lee Enterprises:
wsj.com/articles/lee-e… $BRKB $LEE
Some more tidbits about this deal:

BH Media CEO Terry Kroeger is expected to leave Berkshire after a short transition period.

Each side will have a relationship manager: Kevin Mowbray at Lee and Ted Weschler at Berkshire.
The deal does not include @TheBuffaloNews or @WPLGLocal10, which are both owned by Berkshire.
Read 7 tweets
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#Thread #Equity: It is difficult to shake off #privilege. Difficult. And it is even harder to explain it to those who enjoy it.
I see so many men writing posts about sharing responsibilities at home, being participatory fathers, not dominating women etc.
This is great. So many are becoming "woke" and we must celebrate it. But here's the flip side and herein lies privilege.
Read 26 tweets

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