Thread: HTS could be potentially closer to total dominance in rebel-held Idlib than many think.
There is a lot of analysis on how HTS is eying for full control of M4 and M5 highways to make itself incontournable in the face of Turkey. However I see potential plans that are far more ambitious. /1
Major tensions in February/July 2017 between HTS and other factions gave the group control over most crossings in rebel-held Idlib and Idlib city itself, but also set the beginning of something larger than just economic dominance. /2
Later minor tensions seemed trivial only affecting small villages and areas, but could be far more strategic than initially thought. Moreover the merging of groups into larger factions and alliances inadvertently helped HTS to shuffle the cards and think bigger. /3
From 2017 on HTS succeeded in nibbling off on several corridors connecting large swatches of territory of NLF factions. Latest tensions in south al-Rouj plain were part of it. Remarkable was how many force HTS put behind this attacks, not willing to reduce tensions quickly. /4
Without attracting much attention HTS has put itself in perfect position to gain (indirect) total dominance over rebel-held Idlib by splitting off and isolating NLF-held Sahl al-Ghab and Ariha-Maraat al Numan parts from each other, cutting military resistance of those in half. /5
