It's worth pointing out that three of the men who have the power to seriously impact stability in the Middle East, Trump, Netanyahu and MbS, are all facing crises that threaten their hold on power and could seriously affect their decision-making in the region.
Thank god there’s no country in which all these players have a stake that is vulnerable both politically and geographically and has historically been a convenient battleground for powerful nations to take swings at each other, or I’d be worried.
And thank God that country isn’t wildly sectarian, hasn’t been teetering on the brink of catastrophic regional war for years and isn’t controlled by a nonstate military actor with very little accountability and definitely doesn’t start with an L and end in ebanon
In all seriousness, this is something to keep in mind as we watch these Mueller-related events unfold. Domestic politics and foreign policy are irrevocably intertwined. There are a lot of moving pieces here and some places are more vulnerable than others. Lebanon is one of them.
Damn I hate being right about this shit wsj.com/articles/israe…
Why is now unlike the past 12 years spent in anticipation of another war between Israel and Lebanon, you ask? Well, first of all, 12 years isn't all that long. But in order to understand why we are great danger of further instability in the Middle East, you need some context:
A) The language of this conflict has escalated rapidly. Until recently, Israel has limited its military action against Hezbollah to Syria. Over the course of a few days, you have an anti-tunnel operation inflaming tension on the border and a threat to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon. 
B) This threat has reportedly been relayed by Israel through diplomatic channels directly to the Lebanese government. That’s a big move. The only demand Israel seems to have that would prevent conflict is that Hezbollah stop building precision-guided missiles. Not going to happen
C) This escalation comes at a time when there has been a big push by the U.S. and Israeli governments to confront Iran’s influence in the Middle East. The players I mentioned at the top of this thread don’t seem likely to try very hard to rein that in anytime soon.
Still wondering how likely another war in Lebanon is? The Lebanese government certainly seems to think so.
I’ll end this thread with an observation: another war between Israel and Hezbollah has the potential to be exponentially more devastating than any previous conflict. Hezbollah is extremely well-armed and well-funded. Much blood will be spilled on both sides of the border.
P.S. This potential conflict has tendrils that extend across the Middle East, from Iran to Syria to Saudi Arabia. It remains to be seen if they will extend right across the Atlantic ocean to the most powerful ally of the nation on one side of this conflict: the United States.
