Ahhh it’s that time of year again...
The markets are cold, but the vindication of ICO skeptics and the looming specter of more punitive action is so, so hot. 🔥
Welcome to the latest Crypto Narrative Watch: Crypto Winter Edition.
Thread! 👇
tokeneconomy.co/crypto-narrati…
The markets are cold, but the vindication of ICO skeptics and the looming specter of more punitive action is so, so hot. 🔥
Welcome to the latest Crypto Narrative Watch: Crypto Winter Edition.
Thread! 👇
tokeneconomy.co/crypto-narrati…
2/ I divided the Narrative Watch into two sections - Crypto Winter and Invincible Summer.
There was no way that the ICO Reckoning (aka the ICO-Told-Ya-So) wasn’t going to be right at the beginning of the winter list.
There was no way that the ICO Reckoning (aka the ICO-Told-Ya-So) wasn’t going to be right at the beginning of the winter list.
3/ The important point of this narrative is that *it will not be quiet.* It’s highly likely that many projects and people who would rather fade into obscurity will be dragged back - whether by regulators, or civil suits from investors, or by social media’s memory hole.
4/ Relatedly, the narrative of ICO refunds is exploding right now. After the SEC’s settlement with Airfox and Paragon included investor refunds, everyone started to wonder if that would be the fate of all ICOs.
5/ On the other side of the table, many crypto hedge fund investors don’t got it so good neither. After months of speculation about high water marks & lockup periods coming to an end, there are the beginnings of anecdotal evidence of fund shut downs.
6/ And what about the underlying assets? Well, they’re going through their own transformation, as “utility” tokens try to front run regulatory action by converting themselves into a form that actually has value. H/t @obstropolos for “Futility token”. tokeneconomy.co/futility-token…
7/ Then again, maybe the better approach is to just remove the token entirely? In the wake of a 0x fork to remove ZRX, some are wondering if friction-filled value capture tokens are just going to be forked out of the market in a mass detokenization.
8/ One of the more painful narratives is that, as of ConsenSys recently announcing the elimination of ~13% of its staff, we’ve officially hit the layoffs stage of the bear market. coindesk.com/consensys-conf…
9/ Of course, as all this happens, some are stepping back and saying “but wait, how did we get here again?” As that happens, there is a significant uptick in the focus on the open secret of wash trading and other forms of exchange manipulation.
10/ Part of what gives exchanges their power is that they’re sources for the simple measures we use to judge the suggest of protocols - price, volume, market cap. Those rubbish metrics are being increasingly called out and alternatives offered. blog.nomics.com/essays/crypto-…
11/ Yeah, overall it’s sort of a tough time for DEXs, what, with scrutiny from the SEC and in the fact that no one actually thinks they’re really decentralized anymore as they agree to KYC/AML.
12/ Speaking of exchange-related products that people have had long-duration skepticism around, the Tether FUD really crescendo’d this Fall. As it lost its peg, some wondered if the antagonism had to do with new Stablecoins in the market
13/ And then there were the death spiral narratives. We’ve heard about Ethereum-ICO death spirals, EOS block producer death spirals, and of course, the Bitcoin mining death spirals. Especially in the case of BTC, these narratives have gotten pretty swatted
14/ Lastly in the category of bleak crypto winter narratives is something I’m calling “State Power Crypto” - the emergence of authoritarian interest in blockchains as tools of control.
15/ And just for fun, I pointed out the “Competitive Pessimism” that is par for the course for a bear market - where people basically do their damndest to prognosticate even worse futures than the person next to them in order to prove their bonafides.
16/ The second half of the Narrative Watch was about “Invincible Summer” narratives - the competition to set the tone for whatever comes next. Most of these narratives are more emergent and in the background than the Crypto Winter narratives.
17/ If State Power Crypto is growing as a narrative, so is its natural enemy: privacy. The last quarter was pretty phenomenal for privacy, with upgrades from Monero and Zcash, Grin moving towards Mainnet, AZTEC brining privacy to ETH and so much more
18/ One of the constant refrains from long-term investors who believe deeply in the space is to follow the talent. So, is the talent looking elsewhere? Survey says no.
19/ Maybe the biggest pop in terms of narrative discussion since the last Narrative Watch in August is Generalized Mining. There have been meetups, panels, posts, threads and the TL;DR is people are thinking a lot about participation and network building.
20/ After years of wearing bad UX like a badge, crypto is finally turning the corner and thinking about usability and product design. To get beyond early adopters, it’s basically required. Great example on this has been @tayvano_ medium.com/mycrypto/the-u…
21/ One place that product design thinking is being manifest is in the wave of plug and play nodes and hardware/software for simplified mining. Examples include @coinmine @CasaHODL @gethoneyminer and the common thread is lowering the barrier to entry
22/ ICOs were once, theoretically, about distributing tokens to make networks more powerful (rather than loading up Scrooge McDuck gold swimming pool rooms). The narrative is returning to the idea of getting tokens distributed by having people actually mine and use them.
23/ I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the Open Finance narrative. While there may be skepticism of the narrative in some circles, the activity going on around collateralized loans among other things is pretty damn interesting.
24/ In 2018, new blockchain governance models moved from a thing that was talked about to a thing that was tried. Governance is heading into 2019 as one of the more important debates - in terms of both model and value to communities. tokendaily.co/blog/the-growi…
25/ Institutionalization narratives are like the cosmic background radiation of crypto - they’re always just sort of there. Still, with major announcements from Fidelity, TD Ameritrade and others, we’re heading into 2019 with some more oomph than before.
26/ Finally, although there is an emerging narrative around State Power Crypto, there is also more buzz about Anti-Authoritarian Crypto. More of this please. Lets bend this arc towards liberty.
27/ Remember folks, market narratives are marketing. They’re a grand, global competition to define what’s happened in a way that makes it more likely that one’s desired version of the future comes to pass.
Back with a new Narrative Watch when the time is right!
Back with a new Narrative Watch when the time is right!
