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Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
It should be noted that this is *way*, **way** less than the EU estimated were the gains from such deals pre-euref, namely ~2%. Furthermore, it'd be reasonable to believe that UK gains wld be bigger than the EU avg since we do more non-EU trade as a % than the EU does.
Here's the EU's estimate of the gains from non-EU trade deals (10 times bigger than that of the Treasury):trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…
The Treasury analysis assumes a 0.1% of GDP long-run gain from the UK setting its own policies instead of the EU doing it for us & assumes 0% impact from "Future domestic policy choices". Not even *pretending* to try a serious quantification of the gains:assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
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Many people still seem to imagine a "No Deal" Sovereign Brexit is unlikely. But what is the likelihood of any of the alternatives? Any deal requires the backstop. No deal can pass the Commons with the backstop. So a deal is only possible if EU gives up backstop. V unlikely now.+
+So if a deal can't happen, a "No Deal" Sovereign Brexit can only be avoided if Brexit is cancelled. How likely is that, given cancellation means either the Conservative Party has ended (if it does it) or Labour wins a GE (not likely but not impossible) & then cancels (unlikely).
Labour would need a solid majority to cancel Brexit against pro-democracy Labour rebels. A solid majority wld mean Corbyn cld implement his programme & blame May for any no deal disruption. What advantage wld there be to him in cancelling?+
Read 5 tweets
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The Belfast Agreement was not that if the UK ever left the EU, Northern Ireland would stay under EU jurisdiction. But if Ireland & the EU insists that's what it was, then so much the worse for the Belfast Agreement & it'll have to go when we leave the EU.
It oughtn't to have been pressed to this choice, but if Ireland & the EU force it to be, then when push comes to shove, leaving the EU - properly, truly leaving it - is (massively) more important than the Belfast Agreement. It is nowhere near a top Brexit priority.
Almost everyone's tried to avoid saying, up to now, that the Irish border is not a top priority. No-one wants to be responsible for any future unrest or lawlessness. But it is the blunt truth. What happens at the Irish border is far less important than that we truly leave the EU.
Read 4 tweets
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The root of the current Brexit negotiations impasse is this. In the Dec-2017 agreement the EU accepted that even in a backstop scenario, Northern Ireland would not have different customs & regulatory procedures from the UK. Then in Feb-2018 it reneged on that. As simple as that.
Mem:"In the absence of agreed solutions, the *United Kingdom* will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."
Let's spell this out. In Dec-2017 the EU agreed to a backstop of the UK maintaining alignment of certain rules with the EU. Now (since Feb-2018, in fact) the EU's reneged on that & says a UK backstop is unacceptable & there must be a Northern Ireland only backstop instead/as well
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Today's Guardian article against the Labour leader. Here's why I don't believe it: Poverty & austerity were #1 decisive issue in UK Brexit vote. Unless the 1,034 Labour members polled were those most affected, it's not clear if their views now changed. 1/ theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
LSE-London School of Economics Blog: Following the #EURef in 2016 an important cross-cutting observation is that Leave voting areas had been “left behind” from globalization, with the local population having been particularly reliant on the welfare state. 2/
You can read the full LSE Blog here “Had austerity not happened, Leave support could have been up to 10% lower”. 3/ blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…
Read 17 tweets
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Don’t know which Europeans Mr. Hannan is speaking to but I haven’t met anyone in Brussels or in EU capitals who is unhappy with the Commission approach & I’ve spoken to a lot of them. #Brexit
In addition, no-one in the #EU is threatening the UK (I wld challenge Hannan to point to one threat that has come from a leading EU politician or negotiator), nor are they stopping the UK from leaving. #Brexit
The EU have been clear from the start that there are many trade models available to the UK & the UK have ruled most of them out. If it feels like the UK has little room for manoeuvre it is because the government painted itself into a corner. #Brexit
Read 17 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Deals touted by Brexiteers as the answer to any hit from EU withdrawal “won’t make any particular difference” to the unusually large portion of Britain’s exports that come from services rather than physical goods.
2/ The fact is that UK exports to non-EU countries have been growing at an average rate of 6% per year every year for at least the last decade.... WHILE WE WERE EU MEMBERS!
3/ taking advantage of such deals proposed by Ms May and Mr Fox would take a long time and would require a painfully slow reorientation of the British economy.
Read 9 tweets
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Among reasons for opposing Brexit is UK's unpreparedness for such a huge change! Unless we stop this now, the purported benefits may be less than pre-sold? and the warned downsides may well be worse? If either or both? our public finances could implode under self-imposed strain.
Consider UK's low productivity relative to our G20 peers - well publicised but poorly understood? Improving 'this' over a sustained period would surely have been preferable pre-requisite prior to anything as profound as Brexit!
Look at UK's ballooning national debt, which has 'more than quadrupled' since John Major left office in 1997. Ask any ordinary Jo if they'd fancy racking up such a huge mortgage? (ours is £2 trillion) before resigning a job to venture into business on their own!
Read 32 tweets
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Thread. Revocability remains one of the great uncertainties of Brexit, right up to point that anyone tries to use it

1/
Perhaps this is the political perspective on the issue. Legally might be possible, but optics will be deeply problematic

2/
Would require a sea-change from UK politicians, who wld be accused of selling-out/denying the will of the ppl/etc

3/
Read 7 tweets

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