That "chip" note, which claimed to end fake currency & kill black money is now going to have a premature death..
Even Tughluq cant stop laughing 🤣 theprint.in/economy/india-…
Dont fall into the news that these notes are going to be withdrawn, they will stay there!!
RBI is in a dilemma with these ₹2000 notes, which used as a quick fix solution, yep, they are facing the proverbial situation of between devil with deep sea.
If you change the denomination, you should need only 3.429 billion ₹2000 notes
Because our 4 printing presses together can print only 2.007 billion notes in a month.
Now see that RTI disclosure by RBI of having 2.473 billion ₹2000 notes as of 8th Nov 2006.
37 days took to print them, only after Urjit became Governor
Within days of DeMon, people found out that this hot potato has no change!!! Exisiting 10% ₹100 notes were not able to meet the demand for change. Remember, you need 20 ₹100 notes as change
Demand for ₹500 notes were more than 17.165 billion existed before DeMon, due to void of ₹1000 notes.
8 Nov 2016: 2.473 billion
31 Mar 2017: 3.285 billion
31 Mar 2018: 3.363 billion
What is this means?
73.5% ₹2000 notes printed before DeMon.
24.1% added in next 5 months.
ONLY 2.3% notes added in next FY
As per RBI report, its still 15.469 billion while ₹100 increased 9.6% to 12.3% during same period.
They also introduced ₹200 too.
Highest denomination (Value %)
This is still not enough to meet the demand for change of high denomination, as ₹2000 needs more lower denominations.
A healthy mix of ₹2000 notes is somewhere close to 35-36% of total CIC.
So max no. of ₹2000, which now exits will be around 3.65 billion.
We will get the exact figure in next RBI AR
Firstly, printing woes.
To replace this 3.65 billion ₹2000 notes, RBI has to print..
with ₹500 - 14.6 billion notes
with ₹200 - 36.5 billion notes
with ₹100 - 73.0 billion notes
They have to print new notes to replace the soiled notes and also to meet the demand to meet CIC too.
So this replacement is practically not possible in near future unless Tughluq goes haywire again 😉
Sudden jump in counterfeits.
As of Mar 2018, 18567 numbers of counterfeit ₹2000 notes detected by banking system alone.
Recall that ₹1000 notes introduced in 2000, took 8 years to cross 10K counterfeit mark
Small size than earlier ₹1000 notes w/o any addl security features, they can print double value!! To transport the same, they need less space!
Changing layout of currency will not make its counterfeit proof, sink in that
RBI inside sources says that this ₹2000 are not circulating like lesser denominations. It became the hoarders favourite choice due to its size and high value!!!
It is going from RBI to hoarders den and not return to the banking system or circulation!!!
Magical solution of chips which can send signals from 100 ft below ground level is not of any help here 🤣
We all know that rest are repackaging of UPA programmes!!
The only pragmatic replacement solution for ₹2000 notes is to bring back ₹1000 notes, which can be printed the entire quantity in 4-5 months and do a Rajan model replacement, rather than sucking it overnight!!
So a further explanation.
IF at all they need to replace ₹2000, this can be ONLY be possible with the re-introduction of ₹1000 notes. No DeMon but gradual replacement
I believe that both can co-exist as a healthy mix of high denominations
Understand that ₹2000 notes reached its saturation limit in the mix of CIC. I said at present it can be a maximum of 3.65 billion here
As our media stop using their analytical brains, dont expect asking some simple logical questions in this regard ;)
Existing value of ₹2000 notes in circulation is 7.3 lakh crore!