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Robin Wigglesworth @RobinWigg
, 18 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
Almost every major equity market in the world is now in a correction or bear market, Goldman Sachs notes.
There have also been more extreme moves, and especially negative ones.
Notable that almost nothing outperformed has outperformed Treasury bills over the past 12 months. You have to go back to the 1980s to see something similar.
December was particularly abnormally bad for US equities, despite buybacks normally peaking in Nov-Dec,
The classic 60-40 equity-bond portfolio has stunk out the place in the US, Europe and Japan., with bonds doing little to buffer the pain.
Interestingly, Goldman reckons that simple risk parity portfolios have done somewhat better.
So WHY has everything been so woeful lately? Well, the "Goldilocks Era" of solid growth, low inflation and low yields is over.
Continuing Fed rate increases has drained money away from other asset classes, and means that two-year Treasuries are now positively correlated with S&P 500 earnings yield and high-yield spreads.
So how gloomy are people now? VERY, according to Goldman's cross-asset risk appetite indicator.
Positioning now looks pretty weak.
"Technical factors such as positioning from systematic and quantitative strategies, and changes in liquidity, could have exacerbated moves motivated by fundamentals."
"While changes in positioning and flows could have been exacerbated by technical factors, there have also been increased concerns about market liquidity."
Risky asset valuations (eg for equities) have fallen sharply, and are now broadly speaking below the 1990s average. Only global bond valuations are elevated (especially after the recent rally).
As a result, global equities underperformed global bonds last year for the first time since 2015
Will 2019 be any better? Yes, says Goldman Sachs, but it depends on to what extent tighter financial conditions weigh on economic growth. Equity slump has been one of the biggest outside a global recession.
Tighter financial conditions usually leads to a fall in economic activity, and global earnings revisions are starting to turn negative again...
Notable that although markets have felt really wobbly recently, in a historical context we don't seem to be in a high-volatility era, as this Goldman heat map shows.
Given that bonds are unlikely to offer as much protection as they have in the past, Goldman recommends gold, yen, and strategies like volatility-targeting (gulp) and option overlays such as collars and puts.
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